MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3938a7b610bd756f7cde3e37524ad3223844a3bec7359aa87a402624139e750
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 27c | 36,433$9,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,598.15 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Texas Rangers | 74c | 34,807$25,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,754.41 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 820.78$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.16 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Texas Rangers | 45c | 593.5$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.57 | 4,427 | 47.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L | -77.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Texas Rangers | 74c | 349.53$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.65 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 35c | 335.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.75 | 5,182 | 54.6%2,829 W · 2,353 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers | 65c | 283.67$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.65 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Texas Rangers | 59c | 251.79$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.19 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 154.92$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Los Angeles Angels | 40c | 114.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.55 | 535 | 38.7%207 W · 328 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Los Angeles Angels | 34c | 101.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 17c | 99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.17 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Texas Rangers | 76c | 99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…fa96backed Texas Rangers | 76c | 86.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 82.87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Los Angeles Angels | 26c | 80.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 1,975 | 41.3%815 W · 1,160 L | -27.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Los Angeles Angels | 35c | 78.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.93 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Texas Rangers | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 338 | 46.7%158 W · 180 L | -12.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked Texas Rangers | 73c | 64.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Los Angeles Angels | 31c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 52.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Los Angeles Angels | 38c | 47.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 1,906 | 49.3%940 W · 966 L | +25.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Los Angeles Angels | 39c | 46.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Los Angeles Angels | 37c | 38.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 3,467 | 51.2%1,775 W · 1,692 L | +105.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Angels | 37c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 4,445 | 45%2,001 W · 2,444 L | +87.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 31.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 2,200 | 40.2%884 W · 1,316 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked Texas Rangers | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…a748backed Texas Rangers | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 187 | 51.9%97 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9149…f2dabacked Texas Rangers | 74c | 24.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-5.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels won
- Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.