Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3f00c3aacc47b1704afeaa866911ae963cacaff660c6ed3f183fc93f01e3e6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 1,149$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 27c | 1,012$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.08 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 33c | 834.17$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.28 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 39c | 620.01$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.51 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 34c | 503.91$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.54 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 75c | 333.3$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.84 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 37c | 300$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.72 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 78c | 285.03$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.73 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 19c | 235.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 78c | 225.86$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 80c | 208.69$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 59c | 184$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 173.35$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 144.08$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 73c | 143.35$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…261ebacked Yes | 17c | 141.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 137.56$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9301…388cbacked Yes | 37c | 136.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 135$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked Yes | 19c | 126.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 118.96$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 117.04$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 113$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed No | 62c | 105.15$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d1…6194backed Yes | 18c | 104.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 20c | 96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked No | 78c | 84.19$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 23c | 83.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 79.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 31c | 72.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 64c | 69.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 18c | 68.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 72c | 65.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 62.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…dc8cbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 18c | 59.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 58.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 21c | 57.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 28c | 56.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 77c | 49.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…0c9fbacked Yes | 36c | 48.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 64c | 48.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 35c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ee…4806backed No | 76c | 40.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 39.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 37.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 80c | 35.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 32.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 39c | 31.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 30.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…8b09backed No | 74c | 27.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 26.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed No | 64c | 19.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 64c | 18.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f2…1f23backed No | 76c | 13.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.