TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$111,173
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$112,240

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,173 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes0c9,221$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.761,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes0c9,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.234918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes1c6,258$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.532,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed Yes0c5,001$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9530131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes1c3,372$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.756627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes1c2,692$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.688356.6%47 W · 36 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3541…6468backed Yes1c1,856$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.61442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c5d…1e18backed Yes12c1,718$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2052544%11 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+45.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No3c1,553$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,512.932,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes2c1,372$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2942849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked No2c1,262$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.7542820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8320…e302backed Yes36c1,254$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.9210430.8%32 W · 72 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes25c1,207$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30021236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cd2…c304backed No12c854.69$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.216038.8%62 W · 98 L+18.0wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+123.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf325…f8e0backed Yes45c810.36$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.074047.5%19 W · 21 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick37cpaid-6.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes35c754.17$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.3736648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes32c722.19$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.7836930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No74c676.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.3911652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No17c663.05$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.1284124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed No30c620.54$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.141,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No8c592.46$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.151,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9807…5668backed Yes50c573.5$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.929617.7%17 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes21c573$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.334,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes21c569$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.842,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No46c497.93$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.391,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes29c451.41$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.0110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No31c431.55$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.074,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No75c418$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.52,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes17c403.59$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.222,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No15c354.72$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.22,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No26c327.37$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.34,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked No4c316.11$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.4128742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No20c300$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.5157044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No11c292.81$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.536,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed Yes29c287.32$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.343139.2%169 W · 262 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No70c281.47$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.492,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No27c276.13$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.354,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed No12c273.82$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.5622550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No8c272.59$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.61,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed No71c250$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.7647866.5%318 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No48c240$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.484,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfdb…0f4dbacked Yes29c235.54$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.142035%7 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No5c228.75$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.091,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes29c221.16$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.282,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes68c220.13$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.563,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked No16c208.8$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.2556322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa754…ec4bbacked No8c199.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.397413.5%10 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No60c198.21$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.2167158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No74c196$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.964,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No9c194.2$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.994,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4f87…b872backed Yes24c187$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+255.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes20c186.86$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.828,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No35c169.87$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.912,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed Yes72c169.62$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.3761760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc629…649cbacked Yes31c158.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No55c157.83$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.451,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No73c149$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6b…6c95backed No7c148.71$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.93per pick7cpaid+1,384.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca9c…e62bbacked No18c146.55$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.327132.4%23 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed No67c144.46$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.9938860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No46c144.09$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.763,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc34…33aebacked No15c140.21$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.46757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick25cpaid+102.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2146…3c18backed No77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.87560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes39c126.1$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.81,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e3a…258ebacked No29c112.77$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.75520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick57cpaid-31.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No72c111.11$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1145675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes78c110.93$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.832,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes52c107.44$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No13c100.58$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.941,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a68…edd3backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3118235.2%64 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2190555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2316045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4441…680abacked Yes62c99.24$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfff1…5e20backed Yes35c96.89$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.912948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes31c95$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4517956.4%101 W · 78 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No77c90$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.754,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No76c89.12$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.629,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3048…a31bbacked No75c89$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.25475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a2e…64a4backed No44c85.59$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.16361.9%39 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed No23c85.04$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8985330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No17c84.88$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.682,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No24c84.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.12,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc124…dc8cbacked Yes62c81.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No76c80$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.14,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No27c79$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5715236.2%55 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes58c74.13$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.12,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1104…1f70backed Yes19c72.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8114151.8%73 W · 68 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x81e9…8e07backed No27c70$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.1420250.5%102 W · 100 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c61.63$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No66c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.43,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No73c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.383,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked No74c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.616453%87 W · 77 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No71c55$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.951,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No74c52$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.529,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No22c50.02$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8771057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.516552.7%87 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No69c49.38$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.514,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes34c48.24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.427248.9%133 W · 139 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes32c47.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3638243.2%165 W · 217 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.