NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4041cd4f3c8cda1b3a9abef2ff1a43e2d78c3f3738d8edf782b646343017e76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Knicksof Knicks, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $367,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $368,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $367,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Hornets | 49c | 348,712$171,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171,732.13 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…5210backed Knicks | 51c | 150,000$76,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73,500 | 154 | 43.5%67 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Knicks | 50c | 93,096$46,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,465.42 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Knicks | 51c | 65,000$32,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,050 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Knicks | 52c | 19,372$10,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,298.56 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Knicks | 51c | 14,089$7,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,967.39 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Knicks | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Hornets | 50c | 9,982$4,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,987.52 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Knicks | 50c | 2,985$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.8 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…6275backed Knicks | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 50cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Knicks | 51c | 1,500$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Knicks | 51c | 1,499$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.51 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Knicks | 50c | 1,200$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Hornets | 49c | 1,083$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.67 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Knicks | 51c | 842.39$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.64 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Hornets | 51c | 784.56$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.05 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Knicks | 46c | 697.89$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.07 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…4324backed Hornets | 47c | 599.97$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.99 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Hornets | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Hornets | 50c | 370$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Knicks | 54c | 343.48$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 48c | 310$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.8 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Hornets | 50c | 304$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Knicks | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Hornets | 48c | 189.81$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.11 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Knicks | 54c | 185.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.98 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Knicks | 54c | 150.82$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Hornets | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Knicks | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…a26fbacked Knicks | 53c | 102.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Knicks | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…129ebacked Hornets | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Knicks | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Knicks | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Hornets | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed Knicks | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…848ebacked Knicks | 54c | 77.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Knicks | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffe…1bc9backed Knicks | 52c | 56.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Knicks | 54c | 51.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Knicks | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked Knicks | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Knicks | 49c | 43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hornets | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Knicks | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Knicks | 52c | 34.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3698…7160backed Knicks | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d12…31e0backed Hornets | 49c | 30.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…1e85backed Hornets | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-8.5)this page
- Hornets vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Hornets vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Knicks: O/U 234.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Knicks: O/U 235.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Knicks: O/U 236.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Knicks: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Knicks (-10.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-9.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.