Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4346f7cd0b7fecd48ef984187d9086d68d83e255bd2dc61b2d719d63e8b256e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 36c | 2,434$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549.19 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 43c | 823.4$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.4 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 785.7$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.74 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 747$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.67 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 537.21$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.16 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 289.74$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 64c | 250$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 241.62$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.72 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 240.47$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 233.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 78c | 230.55$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 216.16$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 12c | 212.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 50c | 200.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.82 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 46c | 197.63$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.41 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 181.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 159.3$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.02 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 152.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…8be2backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 145.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 143.93$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.49 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 143.89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 32c | 142.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.02 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 138$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 136$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 120.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 44c | 114.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.34 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 58c | 101$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 51c | 98.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed No | 61c | 87.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 79.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 76.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 55c | 68.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 68c | 66.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 62.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 77c | 61.72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 46c | 58.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ba…d4fbbacked Yes | 50c | 57.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 57.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 43c | 52.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 49c | 52.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…4268backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 55c | 46.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed No | 52c | 44.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 52c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 41.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…6e26backed No | 58c | 39.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 54c | 38.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdee9…90dbbacked No | 55c | 36.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 63c | 35.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 33.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 61c | 32.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…3bd7backed Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 53c | 29.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 40c | 27.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 68c | 24.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e1…1243backed No | 70c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 22.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 51c | 21.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…616abacked Yes | 48c | 20.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 56c | 20.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 53c | 19.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4df…b0d4backed Yes | 78c | 19.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6f…1ad4backed No | 54c | 19.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.