Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b9818576acc755e5a32b9b89ae0527acaf32e0b5b5f647a7069e50f9fece459
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 30c | 817.75$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 652.58$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 277.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 240.16$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.84 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 33c | 229.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 218.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 66c | 217.82$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.52 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 38c | 202.29$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 32c | 200$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 159.3$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 33c | 150.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 148.86$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 143.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 67c | 139.9$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 44c | 133.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…9682backed Yes | 39c | 129.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 67c | 127.14$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 120.58$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 62c | 109.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 36c | 107.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 106$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 16c | 100.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 33c | 99.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 99.21$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 44c | 93.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 36c | 89.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 80.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 79.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 74.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 61c | 70.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 67c | 65.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 65.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…025abacked Yes | 39c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 64c | 61.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 65c | 58.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 58.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 68c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…24dcbacked No | 68c | 57.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 41c | 54.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 35c | 53.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 21c | 50.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 64c | 49.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 33c | 44.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 65c | 41.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 41.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 37c | 40.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c8…d0a3backed No | 76c | 39.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 39.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 65c | 38.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 65c | 38.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 68c | 37.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 69c | 35.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 35.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 33c | 34.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 31.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…3bd7backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 29.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 58c | 28.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 26.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 47c | 25.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e1…1243backed No | 68c | 24.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 67c | 23.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 22.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…196bbacked No | 75c | 21.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 66c | 21.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…d206backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 58c | 19.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…4d78backed No | 74c | 18.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 64c | 15.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 73c | 15.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc525…de89backed No | 73c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.