Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4c1477227e9d29472fd9a7467f416e492ff49a2ef12426691405c9f155b5867
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 58c | 2,980$1,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.82 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 42c | 1,700$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,651$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.81 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 830.56$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 768.39$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…80adbacked No | 72c | 425.08$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.31 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 363.47$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.08 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 12c | 336.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054c…0a1abacked Yes | 19c | 329.93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 75c | 228$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 34c | 217.15$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 216.08$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 212.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 201.33$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 172.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 26c | 170.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 151.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 13c | 143.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 128.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 40c | 122.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 21c | 115.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 44c | 113.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 64c | 112.02$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…66b4backed Yes | 18c | 111.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 110.67$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Yes | 19c | 106.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eea…4bb0backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 27c | 95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 76c | 81.63$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 23c | 81.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 36c | 76.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 24c | 69.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…c967backed No | 73c | 67.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 78c | 66.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 19c | 64.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…68ffbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 34c | 49.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 25c | 47.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked Yes | 42c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 42c | 34.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 59c | 31.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f9…f085backed No | 73c | 29.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfa…168abacked No | 74c | 28.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 64c | 28.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 28.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 25.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…aa43backed No | 74c | 23.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…03cabacked No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 76c | 19.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa143…1303backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 16.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 16.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x987a…d921backed No | 78c | 14.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.