TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,433
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,361

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,433 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes72c2,516$1,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.894,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No14c2,412$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.494,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes36c958.76$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.031,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes67c728.86$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.621,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes65c700$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.971,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No62c540.26$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.692,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf6f…80adbacked Yes71c449$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.211573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6dc…71a6backed No29c400$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1162416.7%4 W · 20 L-6.6wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-53.7%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No39c337.94$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.6310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed No32c329.98$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0961929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No28c299.57$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.116,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes68c247.1$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.94,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No37c244.57$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.277851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No42c221.31$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.114,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No65c218.16$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.93,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No27c218.04$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No18c213.2$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.064,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2831…5473backed Yes75c196.59$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.921060%6 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No20c181.28$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.482,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x63cc…eec5backed No12c176$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.123119.4%6 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-65.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No35c170.17$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.321,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No16c166$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.395,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes71c165.64$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.95,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No34c164.44$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.661,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No21c160$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.55,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e0…6392backed Yes68c145.05$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.055358.5%31 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No34c137.72$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.087,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No49c136.68$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0333746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No46c126.56$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3343848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No28c122.14$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa98c…a75ebacked Yes63c117.73$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.564535.6%16 W · 29 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No15c115$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.14,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff82…bd3cbacked Yes62c114.3$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.621866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No16c113$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.211,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No37c110.73$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.429,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No36c110.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.761,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No30c105.65$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.591,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes62c104$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.021,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No52c101.92$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No37c101.89$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.858,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5286949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e13…e968backed Yes63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373633.3%12 W · 24 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-38.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x10e8…fdaabacked No19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1970%0 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No11c96.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3353855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No41c95.6$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.423,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No53c95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.21,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No32c93.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3221…f1bebacked No28c93.44$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.35354.7%29 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No28c87.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2848743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No15c84.24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.641,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No34c83.11$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes72c79.99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5579…2db1backed No48c78.36$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4413852.9%73 W · 65 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No29c77.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.392,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No28c77.61$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.61,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37df…f8b9backed No65c76.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011958.8%70 W · 49 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes36c76.23$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.68,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No23c71.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.082,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No48c70.54$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.781,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed No34c68$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1254234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x143c…487ebacked Yes78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.15831%18 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes59c61.24$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3957948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x094a…a9d2backed No20c59.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8529219.5%57 W · 235 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.59744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c74…ab27backed Yes80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101540%6 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a79…b31ebacked Yes62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed No38c49.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0430849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ac…80c0backed No34c49.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173083.3%25 W · 5 L+5.7wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+27.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes59c49$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9666758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes30c46.34$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4472837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa77e…aea7backed No28c44.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.552556%14 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes79c44.45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2975546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c91…5cccbacked No39c44.12$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.213148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcff7…2fb1backed No29c41.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2421451.9%111 W · 103 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No54c41.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.381,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.452758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes49c39.44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.111,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6300…41adbacked Yes77c38.96$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.962842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No65c38.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.249551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No51c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6128360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes59c37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1749750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No69c36.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2526458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No55c35.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No55c34.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.021,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb033…4f19backed No46c33.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.415343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x506c…840cbacked Yes79c33.42$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0215152.3%79 W · 72 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadd7…8622backed No67c32.77$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8717766.7%118 W · 59 L-0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed No41c32.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2225954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No33c31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2394066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98df…7870backed Yes61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.71850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a4a…4f4dbacked Yes61c28.31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.04633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-51%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes60c26.51$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4820842.8%89 W · 119 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4f…1f77backed Yes77c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick71cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6793…1869backed No44c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1131564.8%204 W · 111 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8782…0968backed Yes74c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.51546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes58c23.81$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1035137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x970d…022ebacked No48c21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0813845.7%63 W · 75 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.