Earnings · resolved market
Will The Walt Disney Company (DIS) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4c5595db8dcb010f2ae062111986b4fcffbd36b83b4502c1ce588a8fe80ebd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 9c | 6,672$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.48 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed No | 16c | 2,581$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.16 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ad…657abacked No | 10c | 1,600$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ce…016cbacked No | 10c | 1,158$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8809…c603backed No | 14c | 1,047$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 10c | 1,008$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 12c | 893.81$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.55 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…1456backed No | 8c | 796.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…109abacked No | 17c | 780$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 15c | 707.1$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.79 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…4f82backed No | 11c | 600$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…2244backed No | 9c | 479.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 448.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…5df1backed No | 16c | 446.97$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.62 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…ad47backed No | 20c | 428.83$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…b226backed No | 12c | 420.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed No | 12c | 382.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 10c | 369.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked No | 17c | 351.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…c73dbacked No | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 340.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 6c | 321.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 12c | 303.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8e…ce30backed No | 12c | 288.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 11c | 271.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…b8f1backed No | 10c | 269$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…1331backed No | 19c | 261.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 10c | 258.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed No | 8c | 229.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa960…dbebbacked No | 10c | 215.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf033…34bbbacked No | 14c | 204.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf462…3a4dbacked No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ab…300abacked No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23ad…5306backed No | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a5…c2d6backed No | 10c | 190$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 7c | 177.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked No | 12c | 171.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…8c81backed No | 10c | 153.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcac3…4bdebacked No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e2…4539backed No | 14c | 146.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29dc…75dabacked No | 14c | 138.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…fd7fbacked No | 15c | 134.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb7…339dbacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…7b24backed No | 17c | 117.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -5.1wins | -0.32per pick | 63cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…5ff4backed No | 12c | 114.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9b…578cbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…7e30backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +57%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01b0…0319backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…6aacbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…2698backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…48c4backed No | 12c | 99.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +173.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba51…ff35backed Yes | 80c | 96.14$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d04…5f7abacked No | 13c | 85.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 18c | 80.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…493abacked Yes | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 78c | 44.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.