TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kyrian Jacquetof Gauthier Onclin, Kyrian Jacquet
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$69,311
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,655

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,311 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Gauthier Onclin30c9,502$2,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,886.058,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6982…a165backed Kyrian Jacquet72c8,334$5,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,335.3662956.9%358 W · 271 L+0.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kyrian Jacquet61c7,127$4,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,771.4911,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bd2…fa7fbacked Gauthier Onclin39c4,961$1,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92213050.8%66 W · 64 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+20.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Kyrian Jacquet71c4,915$3,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.578,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e8…6300backed Gauthier Onclin42c3,478$1,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,474.8810954.1%59 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Kyrian Jacquet61c3,028$1,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.312,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Gauthier Onclin47c2,500$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.629,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Gauthier Onclin43c1,432$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.762,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Kyrian Jacquet58c1,422$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.953,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Kyrian Jacquet70c1,066$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.264,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Gauthier Onclin31c967.74$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30087337.1%324 W · 549 L-3.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kyrian Jacquet61c782.33$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.118,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Gauthier Onclin42c714.29$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,68150%841 W · 840 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc26a…b715backed Gauthier Onclin29c697.15$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20057321.8%125 W · 448 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb45…0cadbacked Kyrian Jacquet67c637.98$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.0511963.9%76 W · 43 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bbb…48f2backed Gauthier Onclin57c617.05$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3511030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-45.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Gauthier Onclin50c594.3$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.581,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Kyrian Jacquet62c584.92$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.084,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Gauthier Onclin35c571.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Gauthier Onclin48c541.54$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.824,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Gauthier Onclin38c500.19$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.654,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dbd…e1e3backed Kyrian Jacquet76c440.79$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.7927446.7%128 W · 146 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a14…9fe4backed Gauthier Onclin30c424$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.240935.7%146 W · 263 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Kyrian Jacquet73c423$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.211,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Kyrian Jacquet60c408.7$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.266,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Gauthier Onclin37c405.39$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.024,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Gauthier Onclin28c384$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5256744.6%253 W · 314 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb575…d35bbacked Gauthier Onclin46c365.22$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16830235.1%106 W · 196 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Kyrian Jacquet52c364.79$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.14,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a18…61a0backed Gauthier Onclin32c355.94$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11352155.3%288 W · 233 L+27.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Gauthier Onclin48c291.67$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401,56640%627 W · 939 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Kyrian Jacquet58c259$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.231,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef77…c481backed Kyrian Jacquet54c238.43$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.951758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88f9…5c03backed Gauthier Onclin63c231.94$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.2536557.3%209 W · 156 L+16.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0f6…a5eebacked Kyrian Jacquet58c227$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.3459954.9%329 W · 270 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Gauthier Onclin48c220.7$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.947,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x301d…604dbacked Gauthier Onclin38c212.55$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807432.4%24 W · 50 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Kyrian Jacquet63c205.95$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.24,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Kyrian Jacquet52c188.68$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.571,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Gauthier Onclin34c186.75$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.142,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8f0…b753backed Kyrian Jacquet71c183$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.0714369.2%99 W · 44 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed Gauthier Onclin12c180$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.627753.4%148 W · 129 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Kyrian Jacquet69c161.18$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.395,41648.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L+14.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Gauthier Onclin48c145.83$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Gauthier Onclin29c135.93$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391,63955.1%903 W · 736 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf85e…5cd5backed Kyrian Jacquet75c135.37$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.843268.8%22 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc5a…07b6backed Gauthier Onclin38c131.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025240.5%102 W · 150 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Kyrian Jacquet50c130.18$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.093,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Gauthier Onclin36c123.84$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.691,87016%299 W · 1,571 L-314.3wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-65.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0xb155…ca84backed Kyrian Jacquet62c121$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9292046.6%429 W · 491 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94c1…e5adbacked Kyrian Jacquet79c101.27$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.274173.2%30 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Kyrian Jacquet48c101.26$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.6639135.8%140 W · 251 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89e8…c85fbacked Gauthier Onclin35c92.47$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.696448.4%31 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Gauthier Onclin50c92$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.911,55642.4%660 W · 896 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ad…7889backed Kyrian Jacquet75c89.37$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3856070.7%396 W · 164 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Kyrian Jacquet60c86.83$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.0380153.1%425 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Gauthier Onclin62c76.61$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.216,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc755…7c5dbacked Gauthier Onclin59c67.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+22.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Gauthier Onclin35c66.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.211,01039.2%396 W · 614 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Kyrian Jacquet73c62.7$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9595050.1%476 W · 474 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc110…9a30backed Gauthier Onclin30c61.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8212846.1%59 W · 69 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74f9…6024backed Kyrian Jacquet59c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6556153.7%301 W · 260 L+19.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Kyrian Jacquet48c58.84$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.842,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed Gauthier Onclin70c56.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7619459.3%115 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43f3…293cbacked Gauthier Onclin43c56.21$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1711133.3%37 W · 74 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Gauthier Onclin54c56.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.32,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed Gauthier Onclin32c54.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4543750.3%220 W · 217 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Kyrian Jacquet63c53.2$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.872,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Gauthier Onclin46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,34949.8%672 W · 677 L-6.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Kyrian Jacquet67c48.1$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.071,06242%446 W · 616 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Gauthier Onclin46c45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.774955.1%413 W · 336 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…2147backed Kyrian Jacquet55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182360.9%14 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+65.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Gauthier Onclin31c38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7823954.8%131 W · 108 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe901…3139backed Kyrian Jacquet51c37.25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2523832.4%77 W · 161 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40e6…cb9fbacked Gauthier Onclin54c37.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.131926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Kyrian Jacquet72c36.95$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3885742.8%367 W · 490 L-23.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe89c…9c72backed Kyrian Jacquet55c36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0543054.9%236 W · 194 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4224…31fbbacked Kyrian Jacquet70c34.33$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1922138.9%86 W · 135 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Kyrian Jacquet38c33.72$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.021,37916.4%226 W · 1,153 L-108.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-49.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd838…96ccbacked Kyrian Jacquet57c33.33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.334257.1%24 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc07…5ccabacked Kyrian Jacquet52c32.02$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.378242.7%35 W · 47 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Kyrian Jacquet65c31.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.132,08544.5%928 W · 1,157 L-51.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e20…5cf9backed Kyrian Jacquet52c30.75$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7535555.5%197 W · 158 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf504…0111backed Gauthier Onclin41c28.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.721,10256.5%623 W · 479 L+52.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67bc…3503backed Kyrian Jacquet53c28.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2811968.9%82 W · 37 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf43f…3b20backed Gauthier Onclin41c27.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1211338.9%44 W · 69 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Kyrian Jacquet47c26.85$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.22,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Gauthier Onclin49c26.48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.982,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5820…b6f6backed Kyrian Jacquet57c26.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.328959.6%53 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Gauthier Onclin55c22.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.453,87445.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L-39.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbe4…f12fbacked Kyrian Jacquet51c20.34$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9758665.5%384 W · 202 L+18.2wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae63…9dcdbacked Gauthier Onclin59c20.34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220552.2%107 W · 98 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbafb…3031backed Kyrian Jacquet77c20.28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5733673.2%246 W · 90 L-15.2wins-0.05per pick78cpaid-5.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5a9…3a77backed Gauthier Onclin54c19.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3911551.3%59 W · 56 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77de…e67abacked Gauthier Onclin55c18.19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1062549.6%310 W · 315 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d8…f690backed Kyrian Jacquet68c17.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.521838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-18.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.