Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe60757ec6db519477108ad5d04b4689fcf737b7c2b70642bf750c2a837f782b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa059…dbcfbacked No | 49c | 1,200$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 51c | 1,140$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.42 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 41c | 614.46$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.46 | 416 | 51.9%216 W · 200 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 43c | 522.27$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.93 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 62c | 489.97$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.98 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 44c | 341.09$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.09 | 198 | 38.9%77 W · 121 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96f3…c324backed No | 49c | 255.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 40c | 245.58$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.44 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 45c | 242.7$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.43 | 726 | 20.4%148 W · 578 L | -46.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 40c | 235.55$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 221 | 60.6%134 W · 87 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 42c | 185.06$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.21 | 634 | 60.3%382 W · 252 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 52c | 183.16$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.24 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0458…ddc2backed No | 42c | 145$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.36 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 52c | 133$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 58c | 103$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 39c | 102.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 60c | 97.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…030dbacked No | 37c | 88.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 54c | 88.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 57c | 87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 54c | 80.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 41c | 80.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 43c | 77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 57c | 72.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 855 | 48.7%416 W · 439 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 65c | 59.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 56.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 57c | 56.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…ae06backed Yes | 64c | 53.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 61c | 48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 470 | 47.2%222 W · 248 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…cec8backed No | 41c | 47.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +5.5wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 46.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 45.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 56c | 43.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 45c | 42.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 49c | 41.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 56c | 41.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 47c | 39.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 48c | 39.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 46c | 37.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 45c | 37.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 33c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 54c | 31.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…e969backed Yes | 59c | 30.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 54c | 27.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 43c | 27.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 56c | 26.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 47c | 26.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa589…9ec9backed No | 57c | 26.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b34…954cbacked Yes | 46c | 21.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 54c | 21.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed Yes | 51c | 20.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d9…9c1fbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 60c | 19.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.