Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x682a452103608f7364e65a0584136a9c5c3210b8caa60bb4aaf48cf1de407024
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 66c | 2,925$1,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930.64 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 47c | 621.81$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.82 | 50 | 84%42 W · 8 L | +13.7wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 34c | 589.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.88 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 418.92$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.49 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 34c | 375$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.5 | 96 | 83.3%80 W · 16 L | +20.8wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 16c | 308.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 32c | 254.88$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.37 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 32c | 200.78$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.53 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 198 | 38.9%77 W · 121 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked Yes | 72c | 187.01$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 36c | 184.62$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.87 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 167.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 167$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.71 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 58c | 166.78$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 416 | 51.9%216 W · 200 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 65c | 163.31$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 726 | 20.4%148 W · 578 L | -46.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 161.55$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0458…ddc2backed Yes | 34c | 157$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.62 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 68c | 146.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 35c | 132$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.63 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…030dbacked Yes | 30c | 108.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked Yes | 34c | 101$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +19.6wins | +0.33per pick | 60cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 75c | 99.01$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 28c | 97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.84 | 288 | 45.1%130 W · 158 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 92.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 92.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 90.72$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 86.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 28c | 81.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 34c | 77.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 168 | 63.7%107 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 34c | 76.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 649 | 76.9%499 W · 150 L | +100.8wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 32c | 74.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 56c | 66.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 470 | 47.2%222 W · 248 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 43c | 61.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 69c | 59.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 917 | 73.2%671 W · 246 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 59.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 447 | 60%268 W · 179 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e02…ce11backed Yes | 69c | 57.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 61c | 55.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 53.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked Yes | 34c | 52.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 323 | 82%265 W · 58 L | +32.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 47.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 28c | 47.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 27c | 45.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 74c | 45.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 383 | 46.7%179 W · 204 L | +16.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 31c | 44.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x40be…e067backed Yes | 34c | 43.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 34c | 42.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 42.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked Yes | 28c | 41.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 51c | 40.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…8a79backed Yes | 30c | 37.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +172.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 557 | 42.5%237 W · 320 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…795bbacked Yes | 34c | 34.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 67c | 31.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 70c | 31.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +18.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 68c | 29.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 57c | 27.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 75c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 54c | 25.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 52c | 24.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 63c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 65c | 20.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…cec8backed Yes | 53c | 19.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +5.5wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 69c | 18.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 71c | 15.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked No | 73c | 13.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 181 | 27.1%49 W · 132 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…ac39backed Yes | 75c | 13.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.