Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe691152d3af21f7278d1a240be3f1a0ef8d6f464a78bf369babad61db07a7d1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 17c | 6,410$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.88 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 4c | 1,718$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,315$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 4c | 1,200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 6c | 1,165$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 12c | 971.11$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.72 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 5c | 940.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 922.69$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 771.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 709.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…943ebacked Yes | 21c | 641.29$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.71 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 14c | 603.36$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.8 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ef…9840backed Yes | 6c | 551.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 536.51$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.28 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 18c | 517.73$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.34 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 4c | 498.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 4c | 493.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked Yes | 5c | 487$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 6c | 431.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 5c | 408.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes | 9c | 371.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 4c | 324.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 11c | 322.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 309.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 5c | 305.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 24c | 299.55$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b63…bd8cbacked Yes | 18c | 291.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 246.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…8b39backed Yes | 9c | 215.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 19c | 197.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 78c | 193.44$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 72c | 170.76$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 13c | 162.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 28c | 152.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad6…29f2backed Yes | 21c | 145.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03b6…2c93backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 130.81$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 123.92$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 122.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 39c | 121$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…b231backed No | 78c | 116.21$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 36c | 109.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 22c | 104.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x143c…487ebacked Yes | 26c | 78.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 42c | 73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 79c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…3d1ebacked Yes | 48c | 62.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 21c | 61.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 26c | 59.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 80c | 57.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 78c | 51.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 61c | 50.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 40c | 50.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 25c | 45.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf8…065ebacked Yes | 48c | 41.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8947…4635backed Yes | 48c | 40.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea19…f354backed Yes | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 31c | 38.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 67c | 37.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae3…8262backed No | 70c | 27.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 54c | 27.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 64c | 19.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 73c | 15.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 15.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or higher on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.