Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6efbe1ca49c1b484b21d40dede015ec466555cb4ad2ab568b6748e7fcc755d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 10c | 1,831$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.73 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 984.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 5c | 817.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 9c | 718.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 34c | 641.9$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.35 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 61c | 626.74$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.34 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 609.34$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 5c | 565.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 5c | 419.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 19c | 416.96$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.19 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 24c | 416.85$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.95 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 15c | 416.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 23c | 371.59$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 5c | 348.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 27c | 305.21$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.94 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 9c | 303.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 9c | 278.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 17c | 257.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 27c | 256.28$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 18c | 238.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 9c | 224.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 6c | 224.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 219$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 18c | 214.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed Yes | 17c | 206.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 20c | 205.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 14c | 203.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 199.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed Yes | 22c | 177.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 19c | 161.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 28c | 148.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 9c | 145.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 67c | 144.43$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 142$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 16c | 142$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 18c | 140.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 12c | 137.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 20c | 122.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked No | 68c | 118.81$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 12c | 117.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 14c | 106.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 34c | 105.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…aaf7backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 21c | 90.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 20c | 89.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 83.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked No | 72c | 82.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 22c | 82.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked Yes | 18c | 81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 15c | 71.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x38e0…c5aabacked Yes | 47c | 69.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 22c | 66.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked No | 76c | 64.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 35c | 63.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 20c | 62.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 19c | 55.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…5abbbacked Yes | 28c | 53.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 46c | 52.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 29c | 51.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…0225backed Yes | 40c | 49.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa283…af5bbacked Yes | 35c | 42.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 28c | 41.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfc…26febacked Yes | 36c | 32.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…2762backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 67c | 29.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c20…e353backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked No | 77c | 23.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0381backed No | 64c | 18.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 80c | 15.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C or higher on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.