Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57c06a78fbd276984e662e9b15cf3f40d239f8bed248a5ae153c9df73c98205c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 12,987$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 73c | 738.84$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.53 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 732$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 17c | 467.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.19 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec05…d8cdbacked Yes | 38c | 418.97$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.87 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 27c | 417.27$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.13 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 22c | 405.08$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.13 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 399.84$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.06 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 345.04$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 17c | 344.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 313.88$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.92 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 40c | 306.73$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.18 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 26c | 291.32$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.56 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 288.37$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.51 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…8853backed Yes | 37c | 266.34$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcda…05b8backed Yes | 25c | 261.6$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 20c | 240$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 232.42$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 221.32$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.43 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 36c | 221.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.66 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…f7edbacked No | 60c | 181$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.4 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 65c | 180.95$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 57c | 174$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.7 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked Yes | 16c | 173.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 27c | 171.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 79c | 166.1$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 27c | 164.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e0…c5aabacked Yes | 29c | 159.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82b3…955fbacked Yes | 23c | 149.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 146.16$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 142.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 7c | 141.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 28c | 140$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 140$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 44c | 135.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 79c | 127.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 40c | 126.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 22c | 120$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 11c | 119.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 118.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 36c | 113.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…52e2backed Yes | 38c | 109.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 105$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 25c | 101.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 35c | 99.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 95.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 36c | 93.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 90.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 70c | 81.93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed No | 61c | 81.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 64c | 81.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 37c | 77.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…b02abacked Yes | 39c | 76.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…ad7fbacked Yes | 30c | 76.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 74.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 25c | 73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 68.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 22c | 68.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 31c | 66.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed Yes | 29c | 60.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 24c | 59.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 72c | 58.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52df…74f3backed Yes | 39c | 57.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 57.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f57…04bcbacked Yes | 35c | 57.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 78c | 56.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4323…f818backed Yes | 23c | 55.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e1…8148backed Yes | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7452…8382backed No | 69c | 52.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb91f…3f8cbacked Yes | 38c | 52.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…0225backed Yes | 36c | 51.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e0…b306backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…feb9backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 49.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 63c | 48.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 63c | 47.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 67c | 44.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 67c | 44.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked No | 64c | 43.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf02…ee21backed Yes | 23c | 43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 41.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 76c | 41.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 40.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…e6bcbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 60c | 39.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 62c | 39.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C or higher on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.