Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64698e59cc3c5d4525268643733052afdd2e4cc51b7a78f123ce6e594e867e4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 2c | 3,285$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 78c | 1,825$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.11 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 39c | 1,541$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.17 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 1,429$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.03 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 7c | 947.37$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 61c | 896.77$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.72 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 74c | 825.02$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.75 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 44c | 692.33$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.45 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 484.63$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 28c | 475.49$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 433.48$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 394.44$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 22c | 391.16$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 382.55$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 382.51$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.5 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 39c | 310$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.68 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 70c | 301.06$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.44 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e0…c5aabacked Yes | 62c | 299.6$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 75c | 295.4$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…aaf7backed Yes | 57c | 268.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 66c | 265.18$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 69c | 258.64$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.08 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 64c | 258$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.28 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 22c | 252.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.13 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 52c | 249.25$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.72 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 42c | 247.83$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.93 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 75c | 241.36$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 78c | 240.66$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.71 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 58c | 234.82$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.64 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 25c | 231.17$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.4 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab3…c4a1backed No | 33c | 221.22$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 74c | 212.52$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.26 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 23c | 202$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.52 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 74c | 200.02$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed No | 40c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 28c | 195.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.3 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…52e2backed No | 42c | 191.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.47 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 59c | 187.53$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.47 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 66c | 187.38$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 37c | 170.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.41 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 32c | 170$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 70c | 163.37$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 63c | 157.62$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.17 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…d08cbacked No | 25c | 157.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 75c | 157.15$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.58 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5074…977bbacked No | 39c | 156.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +47%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x00eb…313cbacked Yes | 20c | 156.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.44 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 69c | 153$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…e428backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.55 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 146.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed Yes | 79c | 144.43$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 20c | 142.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.91 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 142.02$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 21c | 131$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 30c | 129.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.68 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 24c | 126.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 22c | 124.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.51 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 49c | 121.89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0ec7backed No | 25c | 119.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f57…04bcbacked Yes | 59c | 118.34$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b3…955fbacked Yes | 58c | 115.12$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 20c | 113.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 21c | 113$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.17 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 19c | 112.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.69 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 105$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.43 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 70c | 104.67$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked Yes | 58c | 103.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 42c | 103.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 38c | 102.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 80c | 101.71$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa83c…a8f4backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3a…50aebacked Yes | 74c | 99.6$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…b02abacked Yes | 45c | 97.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 93$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…28d4backed Yes | 51c | 92.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 20c | 92.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked No | 40c | 92.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 59c | 92.41$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 77c | 85.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 71c | 84.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 20c | 83.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa228…99c6backed Yes | 15c | 82.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.02 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f46…7a71backed No | 25c | 82.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 66c | 81.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 26c | 79.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 20c | 78.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 77.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 47c | 77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 75c | 76.31$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 67c | 76.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed Yes | 74c | 75.48$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 55c | 74.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 31c | 74.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 47c | 69.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 68.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C or higher on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.