Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3481f1acf4660ef04fcf7ff70a580c8962b6518e7ac79469fdce48066e72f4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 13,136$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.42 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 5c | 1,426$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.57 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e36cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,037$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 679.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 641.77$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.56 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 4c | 631.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 70c | 426.82$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.34 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 16c | 410.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec05…d8cdbacked Yes | 22c | 407.66$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.85 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcda…05b8backed Yes | 14c | 379.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 28c | 331.44$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.65 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 25c | 279.22$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec2…fababacked Yes | 36c | 268.93$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.78 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 264$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 253.9$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 15c | 227.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 26c | 225.83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 23c | 209$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 76c | 181.88$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…28d4backed Yes | 26c | 180.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 179.87$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 174.89$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 165.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 25c | 121.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 17c | 119.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 19c | 116.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 28c | 116$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 72c | 112.71$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 111$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 105$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 29c | 104.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc388…ed37backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7103…c469backed Yes | 22c | 96.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 25c | 95.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…aef4backed Yes | 28c | 92.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 24c | 91.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 36c | 89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 83.56$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…c85ebacked Yes | 25c | 77.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 75.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 72.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 73c | 68.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 77c | 68.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 38c | 67.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 28c | 66.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…0bcebacked Yes | 33c | 64.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 20c | 62.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 36c | 61.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked No | 73c | 59.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 23c | 59.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4824…a847backed No | 63c | 55.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc3…03f8backed Yes | 29c | 52.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 51.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 51.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 20c | 51.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…0225backed No | 79c | 51.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 50.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…03cebacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…bd5abacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 45.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 79c | 44.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked No | 72c | 44.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 44.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 40.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 36c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 38.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 37.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd926…e9cebacked No | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 34.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…1ccebacked Yes | 29c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 33.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed No | 78c | 30.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 69c | 28.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 27.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…bdc6backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 24.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…42f8backed No | 75c | 23.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 75c | 21.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…6b35backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 77c | 16.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 16.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C or higher on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.