NBA · resolved market
Joel Embiid: Points O/U 26.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe78cafce0f5cd77a3949a66a381f3c709298a6235b30d636b0433a111bb65915
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeea8…0412backed Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.01 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 50c | 499.59$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.99 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 50c | 499$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.5 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e9…3614backed Yes | 50c | 469.21$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.95 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…ef54backed No | 57c | 140.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Yes | 42c | 102.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f3…d3e7backed Yes | 51c | 96.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 48c | 63.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df2…d357backed Yes | 69c | 50.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 302 | 56.6%171 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2d…5d6cbacked Yes | 61c | 49.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9023…1143backed Yes | 61c | 41.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 51c | 38.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 210 | 56.7%119 W · 91 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9f…6610backed No | 53c | 37.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 38c | 34.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c18…79f4backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 38c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7385…0199backed Yes | 51c | 29.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4480…8c0ebacked No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517f…7811backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Joel Embiid: Points O/U 26.5this page
- 76ers vs. KnicksKnicks won
- 76ers vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- 76ers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5Over won
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Joel Embiid: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Knicks won
- Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 7.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.