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NBA · resolved market

Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,443
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,438

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,443 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeea8…0412backed Yes52c300$156 inLost-$15616251.9%84 W · 78 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No47c299.98$141 inWon+$158.9956050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No47c268.94$126 inWon+$142.542,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9453…6952backed Yes53c250$132 inLost-$131.933749.3%166 W · 171 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Yes53c222.6$118 inLost-$117.9817551.4%90 W · 85 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked No48c200$96 inWon+$10423741.4%98 W · 139 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed No50c159.38$80 inWon+$79.6920744.9%93 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked No48c109.99$53 inWon+$57.362047.3%293 W · 327 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed No47c101.37$48 inWon+$53.7176247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Yes50c100$50 inLost-$5021642.1%91 W · 125 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No48c60$29 inWon+$31.243752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bd7…0678backed Yes50c59.38$30 inLost-$29.692540%10 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764d…96aebacked No48c40$19 inWon+$20.84341.9%18 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7385…0199backed Yes52c38.6$20 inLost-$20.164864.6%31 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x816e…8263backed Yes52c38.46$20 inLost-$202045%9 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8bd…b0a8backed Yes52c38.11$20 inLost-$201866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+69.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2e3d…b56cbacked Yes53c37.74$20 inLost-$2037344.2%165 W · 208 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1815…e217backed Yes54c33.62$18 inLost-$188855.7%49 W · 39 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72a9…44d3backed Yes53c32.08$17 inLost-$1728455.3%157 W · 127 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed No48c30$14 inWon+$15.649852.6%262 W · 236 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x110d…cd01backed Yes53c28.3$15 inLost-$1534556.2%194 W · 151 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed No46c28.26$13 inWon+$15.2619352.8%102 W · 91 L+11.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea48…3216backed Yes52c20$10 inLost-$10.46642.4%28 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49d0…bf9dbacked Yes53c20$11 inLost-$10.64139%16 W · 25 L-6.6wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-30.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x114d…661fbacked Yes52c20$10 inLost-$10.42544%11 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.