MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7fb40f918bbebc65f5f762514d5c8b33c60868698bc2e82196d780aa4572140
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b55…1167backed No | 62c | 475.25$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.15 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 38c | 447.29$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.48 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 38c | 327.43$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.42 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf209…15b9backed No | 63c | 291.09$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 27c | 256.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…cdddbacked Yes | 46c | 210.32$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…9d08backed No | 66c | 209.89$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.36 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed No | 60c | 161.37$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.74 | 252 | 47.6%120 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 33c | 134.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 40c | 129.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…7e96backed No | 59c | 99.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 54c | 83.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…88e8backed No | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Yes | 37c | 67.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Yes | 41c | 60.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4589…5ea9backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yes | 56c | 41.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0167…8525backed No | 61c | 40.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed No | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…9d38backed No | 58c | 25.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Bravesthis page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-8.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.