Asian League · resolved market
Will Fagiano Okayama vs. Tōkyō Verdy end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe806886324aee8c4c34744135df33aae18091a710befd65b271cbc20ef5efb4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 29c | 5,000$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,550 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 65c | 4,899$3,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,183.07 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 35c | 2,901$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,894.87 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78e3…2bcabacked Yes | 44c | 2,273$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 64c | 1,408$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.3 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 59c | 1,029$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.61 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 396 | 49.7%197 W · 199 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 71c | 874.67$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.78 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 71c | 802.31$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.3 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 71c | 791$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.61 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 71c | 640.99$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.11 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 35c | 589.45$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.75 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d12…ccc3backed No | 46c | 434.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed Yes | 54c | 424.89$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.45 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b13…37dbbacked Yes | 73c | 274.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 39c | 196$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.41 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 47c | 181.54$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.36 | 144 | 40.3%58 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 35c | 138.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.07 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 8c | 138.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Yes | 29c | 137.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.97 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 135.47$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.18 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 35c | 132.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.83 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yes | 35c | 114$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 181 | 61.9%112 W · 69 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 47c | 111.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 282 | 51.4%145 W · 137 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085d…c89ebacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Yes | 53c | 99.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 28c | 82.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce5…17f9backed Yes | 29c | 75.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Yes | 29c | 75.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 82.5%52 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…487abacked Yes | 32c | 65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +15.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Yes | 33c | 43.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Yes | 36c | 41.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5476…782abacked Yes | 29c | 39.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Yes | 35c | 34.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Yes | 53c | 25.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…c449backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 218 | 54.1%118 W · 100 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes | 67c | 16.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 118 | 61.9%73 W · 45 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fagiano Okayama vs. Tōkyō Verdy end in a draw?this page
- Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-08-22?No won
- Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-08-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.