Tennis · resolved market
National Bank Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhang
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8364f07a56f87f316dde01b088fc3ce0c26bbf4a2d8cbf12c0c86a9f35fb919
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aryna Sabalenkaof Aryna Sabalenka, Shuai Zhang
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $449,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $497,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $449,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Shuai Zhang | 6c | 53,031$3,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,181.88 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Shuai Zhang | 6c | 41,480$2,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,488.8 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c50…e0c9backed Shuai Zhang | 9c | 21,186$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 421 | 31.6%133 W · 288 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Shuai Zhang | 6c | 20,435$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.76 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Shuai Zhang | 6c | 19,920$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.23 | 785 | 36.1%283 W · 502 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…c336backed Shuai Zhang | 4c | 17,000$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674 | 221 | 23.1%51 W · 170 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Shuai Zhang | 9c | 11,922$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.22 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…b511backed Shuai Zhang | 4c | 10,088$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 423 | 32.4%137 W · 286 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Shuai Zhang | 7c | 9,593$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.54 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Shuai Zhang | 6c | 8,910$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.31 | 1,206 | 8%96 W · 1,110 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Shuai Zhang | 7c | 8,104$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.28 | 332 | 35.2%117 W · 215 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Shuai Zhang | 6c | 7,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1,865 | 45.6%851 W · 1,014 L | +50.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Shuai Zhang | 7c | 6,341$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.16 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Shuai Zhang | 6c | 6,250$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Shuai Zhang | 6c | 5,605$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.3 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Shuai Zhang | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Shuai Zhang | 7c | 4,377$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.37 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Shuai Zhang | 6c | 3,366$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.96 | 568 | 27.3%155 W · 413 L | +23.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe462…e436backed Shuai Zhang | 9c | 2,596$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Shuai Zhang | 6c | 2,562$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.69 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Shuai Zhang | 4c | 2,349$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.44 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Shuai Zhang | 6c | 2,151$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.06 | 726 | 38.8%282 W · 444 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Shuai Zhang | 7c | 1,977$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.51 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Shuai Zhang | 6c | 1,933$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.95 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…30bcbacked Shuai Zhang | 7c | 1,815$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Shuai Zhang | 3c | 1,650$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 142 | 45.1%64 W · 78 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Shuai Zhang | 6c | 1,608$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.51 | 221 | 52.9%117 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Shuai Zhang | 6c | 1,347$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Shuai Zhang | 6c | 1,259$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.51 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Shuai Zhang | 6c | 1,195$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.23 | 291 | 49.5%144 W · 147 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Shuai Zhang | 6c | 1,173$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Shuai Zhang | 7c | 1,166$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 611 | 52.2%319 W · 292 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7b…c4ebbacked Shuai Zhang | 7c | 1,161$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 88 | 10.2%9 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…f3d0backed Shuai Zhang | 9c | 1,006$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e3…f2c9backed Shuai Zhang | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Shuai Zhang | 7c | 910.21$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 1,365 | 43.3%591 W · 774 L | -26.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…d0b9backed Shuai Zhang | 2c | 677.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 707 | 29.1%206 W · 501 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68f0…c32dbacked Shuai Zhang | 9c | 661.22$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67be…6e09backed Shuai Zhang | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 489 | 41.1%201 W · 288 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…87b5backed Shuai Zhang | 6c | 593.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 188 | 29.8%56 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a11…9becbacked Shuai Zhang | 6c | 551.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Shuai Zhang | 5c | 418.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Shuai Zhang | 6c | 369.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 705 | 37.6%265 W · 440 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Shuai Zhang | 6c | 354.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 1,729 | 48.9%845 W · 884 L | +53.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Shuai Zhang | 10c | 323.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 950 | 50.1%476 W · 474 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Shuai Zhang | 6c | 314.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Shuai Zhang | 7c | 311.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Shuai Zhang | 8c | 290.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Shuai Zhang | 7c | 283.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 690 | 47%324 W · 366 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Shuai Zhang | 9c | 281.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 2,049 | 46.8%958 W · 1,091 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Shuai Zhang | 6c | 276$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 195 | 37.4%73 W · 122 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Shuai Zhang | 9c | 268.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 360 | 40%144 W · 216 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Shuai Zhang | 6c | 245.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 375 | 47.2%177 W · 198 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e5…e6adbacked Shuai Zhang | 8c | 236.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 10.7%11 W · 92 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Shuai Zhang | 8c | 217.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…2482backed Shuai Zhang | 9c | 210.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Shuai Zhang | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Shuai Zhang | 6c | 198.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2c…2151backed Shuai Zhang | 7c | 190$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 389 | 11.6%45 W · 344 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83bd…3f07backed Shuai Zhang | 8c | 162.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked Shuai Zhang | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5251…be02backed Shuai Zhang | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- National Bank Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhangthis page
- Sabalenka vs. Zhang: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5)Sabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.