Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe83ab108ca464d176d3a32a9062aef52a4a16afca7e99032e5e4ee16c287a42a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 42c | 892.13$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.67 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 67c | 666.19$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.57 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed No | 79c | 539.83$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.05 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c4b7backed Yes | 19c | 387.28$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +233%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 10c | 374.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 4c | 355.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 28c | 347.45$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.97 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 346.84$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 317.81$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 28c | 299.33$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 288.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 277.77$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 224.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 48c | 204.76$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 200.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 38c | 199.4$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.75 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 194.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 26c | 174.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 38c | 149.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 24c | 134.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 36c | 129.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…af03backed No | 38c | 129.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.68 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed Yes | 45c | 128.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 44c | 127.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 115.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 37c | 104.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 58c | 104.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 21c | 97.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 77c | 95.35$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed No | 68c | 90.01$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 40c | 89.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 30c | 87.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 86.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 19c | 85.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 27c | 83.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 61c | 79.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed No | 69c | 78.06$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e35…24a7backed Yes | 28c | 72.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed No | 63c | 70.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 39c | 69.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 29c | 65.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 70c | 64.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 32c | 62.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes | 46c | 62.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…b8ffbacked No | 80c | 61.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 35c | 61.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed No | 70c | 59.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 39c | 57.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 31c | 57.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 35c | 54.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 71c | 54.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc25e…5d00backed No | 74c | 52.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed No | 67c | 50.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8736…f457backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 32c | 49.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 31c | 48.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 22c | 46.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 45c | 45.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b85…7265backed No | 67c | 43.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed No | 47c | 40.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 42c | 39.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d9…2566backed Yes | 49c | 38.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 60c | 35.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 47c | 29.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 27.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 53c | 27.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 78c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe93f…6b7ebacked No | 50c | 24.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked No | 48c | 24.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 44c | 22.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 77c | 21.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 21.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed Yes | 63c | 19.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked No | 66c | 17.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed No | 63c | 16.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6d…d234backed No | 70c | 14.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…3003backed No | 75c | 13.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.