Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedabce5d13fd7c912e43839cbfb06b072b2b6072a6753d1ab49d7a01a8f31137
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 1c | 1,420$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 68c | 1,108$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.68 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 73c | 1,105$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.57 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 34c | 640.65$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.5 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…1252backed Yes | 61c | 622.68$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.47 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 49c | 621.71$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.07 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 538.8$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 79c | 456.04$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.4 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 442.86$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 386.62$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 71c | 341$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.39 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 28c | 335.36$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ca…c4f0backed No | 5c | 327.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed No | 52c | 312.33$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.65 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked No | 64c | 300.46$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…9f87backed No | 23c | 293.62$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.08 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 71c | 241.49$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…889abacked Yes | 70c | 223.42$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 76c | 193.92$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 64c | 192.64$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.58 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked Yes | 74c | 190$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 168.93$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 66c | 162.12$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…0c7ebacked Yes | 57c | 159.7$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 78c | 147.59$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 71c | 141.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 56c | 133.73$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 124.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.37 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 47c | 120.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6969…c0c1backed Yes | 68c | 115.11$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 43c | 111.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 42c | 105.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed Yes | 69c | 104.45$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79e…8f81backed Yes | 76c | 100.56$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 56c | 98.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed No | 61c | 97.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e35…24a7backed No | 45c | 96.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 54c | 96.46$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked No | 46c | 94.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 62c | 92.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 87.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 37c | 87.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 70c | 86.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 41c | 86.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 85.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 61c | 85.26$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes | 56c | 85.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 80.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…01b9backed Yes | 37c | 80.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 79.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 60c | 77.74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 25c | 77.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 78c | 74.94$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 34c | 73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 47c | 70.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 44c | 70.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa045…282abacked Yes | 61c | 69.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed No | 48c | 67.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 72c | 67.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 54c | 66.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 67c | 62.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 62c | 62.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 40c | 59.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 36c | 59.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…af03backed Yes | 74c | 58.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…c5eabacked Yes | 47c | 54.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 65c | 51.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…ce76backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…8623backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 47c | 49.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 48.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed No | 60c | 48.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 58c | 45.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 26c | 44.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 64c | 44.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 60c | 43.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 55c | 43.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 42c | 42.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed No | 33c | 41.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…8f70backed No | 39c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed No | 64c | 40.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 42c | 40.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked Yes | 39c | 39.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 39.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76d5…6153backed Yes | 76c | 38.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 32c | 38.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 75c | 36.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 46c | 35.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9d72backed No | 36c | 34.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +376.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 47c | 34.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed No | 44c | 34.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 40c | 34.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 64c | 34.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked Yes | 71c | 34.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 57c | 32.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 40c | 32.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.