MLB · resolved market

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe884b0ddb2ab513a85ca9070620a9e109ee95375e67cf250b539916360d9c566

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: May 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $18,857
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $18,776

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,857 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Under	53c	4,021$2,131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,890.09	550	53.1%292 W · 258 L	+20.7wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44b6…672abacked Under	50c	2,842$1,433 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,408.65	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	-4.6wins	-0.12per pick	48cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Over	49c	1,555$762 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$761.94	1,352	50.8%687 W · 665 L	+13.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	47c	1,485$693 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$692.85	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	53c	1,385$738 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$647.46	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Over	50c	1,200$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	1,010	48.1%486 W · 524 L	-13.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Over	47c	1,064$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	891	53.5%477 W · 414 L	+24.2wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	36c	956.72$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.52	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Over	47c	937$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440.39	920	54%497 W · 423 L	+23.1wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e4…0398backed Over	47c	808.51$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	34c	765.5$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.03	2,389	43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L	-25.4wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over	31c	679.35$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.72	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under	59c	638.36$379 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$258.97	6,116	55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L	+344.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Under	53c	637.27$340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$297.39	272	49.3%134 W · 138 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Over	51c	573.67$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.37	128	50%64 W · 64 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29b0…3f3cbacked Over	46c	532.09$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.76	192	48.4%93 W · 99 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over	50c	459.97$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.98	1,435	50%717 W · 718 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0767…36b0backed Over	45c	372.14$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.46	77	50.6%39 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Under	54c	351.1$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.86	252	49.6%125 W · 127 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	63c	339.24$214 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.91	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Under	68c	305.4$206 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.12	371	43.9%163 W · 208 L	-21.4wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa564…e6f3backed Under	54c	277.78$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.78	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0554…79b9backed Under	49c	265.31$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.31	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Under	51c	259.81$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.31	840	49.4%415 W · 425 L	+8.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc278…a116backed Over	30c	252.79$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.05	841	40.2%338 W · 503 L	-3.0wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Over	25c	202.65$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.66	191	43.5%83 W · 108 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under	70c	202$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.3	4,035	57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L	+72.2wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Under	54c	200$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92	591	50.3%297 W · 294 L	+9.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Under	63c	187.54$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.74	1,379	50.6%698 W · 681 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked Under	54c	185.19$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.19	384	55.2%212 W · 172 L	+9.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Under	62c	184.2$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.17	1,367	54.3%742 W · 625 L	+16.5wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x473e…c0f6backed Over	35c	182.72$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.53	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd8…eecabacked Under	51c	171.57$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.57	222	48.6%108 W · 114 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Over	48c	167$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.16	496	49.8%247 W · 249 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed Over	47c	159.57$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	481	50.7%244 W · 237 L	-19.3wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Under	62c	159.47$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.6	1,733	49%849 W · 884 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Under	65c	149.65$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.06	2,243	57.6%1,293 W · 950 L	+37.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under	64c	146.93$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.7	2,583	61.4%1,587 W · 996 L	+70.9wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa804…bdc1backed Over	45c	135$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.75	84	46.4%39 W · 45 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Over	53c	134.36$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.23	1,345	47.7%642 W · 703 L	+10.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over	35c	122.19$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.54	1,269	47.4%602 W · 667 L	-31.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over	47c	109.79$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.6	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6495…6cd7backed Over	47c	106.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	68	55.9%38 W · 30 L	+5.0wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa21b…9e94backed Over	47c	106.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	486	51%248 W · 238 L	-18.0wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98e9…8dbebacked Over	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	93	49.5%46 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Over	34c	100$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.33	393	44.3%174 W · 219 L	-22.5wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over	34c	97.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.35	6,303	48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L	+181.4wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked Under	59c	94.72$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.6	82	46.3%38 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Over	49c	94.59$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.35	1,836	50.8%932 W · 904 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Under	62c	91.86$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.91	509	49.5%252 W · 257 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Under	56c	89.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.29	478	50.4%241 W · 237 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Over	44c	86.92$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.24	750	49.7%373 W · 377 L	+7.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Over	41c	83$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.03	219	44.7%98 W · 121 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Under	66c	80$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.93	2,995	50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L	-36.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Over	44c	78$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.32	232	48.7%113 W · 119 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Over	37c	66.86$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.78	1,445	50.3%727 W · 718 L	-27.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cef…9d08backed Over	45c	66.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under	62c	65$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.9	4,381	44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L	+77.8wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over	47c	64$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.16	1,053	47.3%498 W · 555 L	-14.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over	62c	60$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.2	5,127	54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L	+232.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over	18c	56.37$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	1,843	43.6%804 W · 1,039 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e4a…f43dbacked Over	39c	54.17$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	99	33.3%33 W · 66 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over	48c	53.93$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.15	2,945	47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Under	65c	52.95$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.62	5,234	56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L	+130.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f5…bb11backed Under	54c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	559	53.1%297 W · 262 L	+10.5wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Over	47c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	1,001	48.3%483 W · 518 L	-15.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Over	47c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	1,498	45.3%678 W · 820 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Under	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	674	44.1%297 W · 377 L	+27.8wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdff8…3c8bbacked Over	46c	49.63$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.83	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.4wins	-0.15per pick	52cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	60c	47.43$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.97	2,545	45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L	-73.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed Over	45c	45.75$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.59	85	50.6%43 W · 42 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Under	62c	42.5$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.15	970	50.7%492 W · 478 L	+13.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Under	62c	40$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.38	1,630	55.2%899 W · 731 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	67c	38.48$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.59	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf23…dcb7backed Under	54c	37$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.02	57	38.6%22 W · 35 L	-5.9wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc96b…438abacked Over	47c	31.91$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	274	52.6%144 W · 130 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cd7…8e4abacked Under	54c	30.56$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.06	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bfd…a4bbbacked Under	49c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	63	55.6%35 W · 28 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Under	69c	27$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.28	1,133	57.2%648 W · 485 L	+35.9wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bbd…98f2backed Over	47c	26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	187	51.3%96 W · 91 L	+9.9wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Under	61c	25.86$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.1	290	47.6%138 W · 152 L	-11.4wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Over	44c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	113	46.9%53 W · 60 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c4b…839fbacked Under	60c	25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	26	69.2%18 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	66cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaff…eaf6backed Under	54c	23.7$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.9	140	47.1%66 W · 74 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Under	57c	23.32$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.04	25	72%18 W · 7 L	+3.3wins	+0.13per pick	59cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9a38…7210backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+17%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked Under	56c	18.02$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.93	143	53.1%76 W · 67 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5this page
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Houston Astros won
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event