NHL · resolved market
Kings vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8cebc63010e46b032b04f5c3b1366ea8538326e97c57bb8a9730d316bae174e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 47c | 4,966$2,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,334.02 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 53c | 3,519$1,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,662.5 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 1,570$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.86 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 50c | 1,412$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.65 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 34c | 1,161$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.8 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 30c | 402.36$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.71 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 74c | 292.99$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.4 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 59c | 264.52$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.45 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 29c | 130.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…8a48backed Under | 26c | 110.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 67c | 105$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 58c | 102.77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed Under | 65c | 98.8$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 110 | 61.8%68 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 25c | 97.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.94 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 53c | 92.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 30c | 88.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Over | 61c | 80.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 67c | 72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 65c | 72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 68.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 27c | 63.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…1749backed Under | 40c | 60.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 25cpaid | +248.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 30c | 58.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa905…dc4fbacked Under | 55c | 57.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…e671backed Over | 31c | 57.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa57f…930ebacked Over | 80c | 44.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked Under | 26c | 42.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Over | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 70c | 31.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | -15.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 67c | 27.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…c76cbacked Over | 78c | 25.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eca…87dabacked Over | 80c | 24.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Over | 75c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 61c | 22.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba8…697ebacked Over | 53c | 21.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c37…39babacked Under | 80c | 20.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa466…14ecbacked Over | 74c | 15.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…415cbacked Over | 80c | 14.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 74c | 14.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5this page
- Kings vs. AvalancheAvalanche won
- Kings vs. Avalanche: O/U 2.5Over won
- Kings vs. Avalanche: O/U 3.5Under won
- Kings vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kings vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kings vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.