MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8db25c82499434c9d0e3a606709135b0fec56138dc5588aae8b966f0fe0012f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Minnesota Twins, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 6,271$3,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,340.76 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 6,253$2,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,427.94 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Minnesota Twins | 54c | 5,073$2,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,739.92 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 69c | 2,703$1,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.37 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 2,392$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.82 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.05 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Minnesota Twins | 47c | 999.98$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.99 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 821.69$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.46 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 767$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.13 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 734.26$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.63 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 617.69$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.9 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Minnesota Twins | 18c | 467.72$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.19 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed St. Louis Cardinals | 70c | 441.53$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.76 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Minnesota Twins | 39c | 392$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.88 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 73c | 347.68$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.35 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 307.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 306.07$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.37 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Minnesota Twins | 51c | 262$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.62 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Minnesota Twins | 22c | 223.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Minnesota Twins | 9c | 204.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Minnesota Twins | 36c | 181.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 80c | 165.7$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Minnesota Twins | 19c | 156.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Minnesota Twins | 15c | 109.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Minnesota Twins | 54c | 105.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed St. Louis Cardinals | 72c | 88.44$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 70c | 56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 73c | 55.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed St. Louis Cardinals | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 48.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 111 | 55.9%62 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins | 29c | 47.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 46.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 41.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Minnesota Twins | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 36.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Minnesota Twins | 30c | 36.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Minnesota Twins | 38c | 34.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…c4fcbacked Minnesota Twins | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 24.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 72c | 16.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.