MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0943ee8bdd3315dab3bfaa6379fcbffcf84d315514c0625de9e476ab00b0c822
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Under | 54c | 14,358$7,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,741.98 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 10,716$4,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,769.97 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 46c | 2,897$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575.04 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 46c | 1,858$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.23 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 45c | 1,497$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.48 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 1,402$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.38 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 55c | 1,398$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.65 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 47c | 1,196$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.69 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 1,069$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.51 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…1a3ebacked Under | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 56c | 839.99$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.6 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 54c | 546.18$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.24 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 54c | 499.61$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.5 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 51c | 484.3$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.69 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 409.73$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.4 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 47c | 397.37$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.41 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a5…cd84backed Under | 57c | 352.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 352.24$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.86 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Under | 56c | 239$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.84 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Over | 46c | 233.45$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.35 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 41c | 201.46$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.86 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 61c | 158$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 21c | 157.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88ed…8300backed Over | 55c | 154.55$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.55 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec11…953fbacked Under | 46c | 153.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 50c | 110.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 46c | 108.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.23 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 55c | 104.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Over | 54c | 103.17$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 101.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 43c | 89.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…d26dbacked Under | 54c | 72.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Over | 50c | 71.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 40c | 71.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…2d29backed Over | 45c | 48.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1486…cef3backed Over | 47c | 46.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…0b91backed Over | 47c | 45.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +6.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 48c | 45.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…7c8fbacked Over | 47c | 44.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 54c | 41.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…2aa4backed Under | 54c | 39.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…5ff8backed Over | 45c | 37.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 52c | 37.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 43c | 33.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed Under | 54c | 33.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…e4a7backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe350…e494backed Under | 45c | 29.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Under | 54c | 24.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…900ebacked Over | 52c | 23.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be1…9947backed Under | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4c…c0e3backed Under | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed Under | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Under | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…d77abacked Over | 64c | 16.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.