Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8f3e92dc3ec992552ccf2caa3ea96b119819e587a85668d9422b3a882b2c4b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alliance Guardiansof Nightblood Gaming, Alliance Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Alliance Guardians | 40c | 1,068$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.56 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Alliance Guardians | 53c | 830.83$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.92 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Nightblood Gaming | 59c | 668.18$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.76 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Nightblood Gaming | 55c | 421.13$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.01 | 543 | 42.4%230 W · 313 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…dca3backed Nightblood Gaming | 57c | 401.68$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.95 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Alliance Guardians | 40c | 400$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 208 | 40.9%85 W · 123 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alliance Guardians | 68c | 369.67$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.7 | 1,376 | 47.1%648 W · 728 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Nightblood Gaming | 44c | 353.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.63 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Alliance Guardians | 54c | 334.92$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Alliance Guardians | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 173 | 49.7%86 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f9…fee2backed Nightblood Gaming | 38c | 278.02$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.43 | 282 | 47.5%134 W · 148 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Nightblood Gaming | 4c | 257.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4687…8d42backed Alliance Guardians | 45c | 216.68$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Nightblood Gaming | 48c | 208.92$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -19.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Nightblood Gaming | 54c | 174.93$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.53 | 312 | 27.6%86 W · 226 L | -33.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee8e…0a7bbacked Nightblood Gaming | 50c | 160.84$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.43 | 781 | 62%484 W · 297 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9512…a3d7backed Nightblood Gaming | 63c | 156.09$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.76 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Nightblood Gaming | 64c | 153.73$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.77 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed Alliance Guardians | 38c | 147.39$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.92 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…c66dbacked Nightblood Gaming | 69c | 144.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Nightblood Gaming | 47c | 123.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 664 | 38.1%253 W · 411 L | -31.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Nightblood Gaming | 52c | 111.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Alliance Guardians | 44c | 103.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 275 | 46.2%127 W · 148 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ba…b99abacked Nightblood Gaming | 37c | 103.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Alliance Guardians | 67c | 102.06$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 998 | 46%459 W · 539 L | -27.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Alliance Guardians | 42c | 97.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 291 | 51.5%150 W · 141 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Nightblood Gaming | 46c | 83.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Nightblood Gaming | 60c | 83.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Alliance Guardians | 47c | 81.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 267 | 30.7%82 W · 185 L | -13.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Nightblood Gaming | 59c | 80.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 702 | 51.3%360 W · 342 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed Nightblood Gaming | 60c | 78.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Alliance Guardians | 36c | 76.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 231 | 46.8%108 W · 123 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a35…6fe0backed Alliance Guardians | 44c | 69.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 156 | 42.3%66 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…3e87backed Nightblood Gaming | 37c | 66.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Nightblood Gaming | 45c | 64.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Alliance Guardians | 36c | 57.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Alliance Guardians | 46c | 56.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675b…a877backed Nightblood Gaming | 34c | 53.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked Alliance Guardians | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 157 | 54.1%85 W · 72 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Alliance Guardians | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1599…5432backed Alliance Guardians | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed Alliance Guardians | 55c | 49.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…0a0ebacked Alliance Guardians | 59c | 47.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Alliance Guardians | 40c | 42.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 348 | 47.4%165 W · 183 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Alliance Guardians | 58c | 40.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed Alliance Guardians | 38c | 40.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Nightblood Gaming | 61c | 39.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 636 | 52.7%335 W · 301 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa625…90cdbacked Nightblood Gaming | 34c | 39.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…6b39backed Nightblood Gaming | 49c | 38.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Nightblood Gaming | 33c | 36.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 779 | 29.5%230 W · 549 L | -72.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Alliance Guardians | 39c | 35.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 126 | 33.3%42 W · 84 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Alliance Guardians | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked Nightblood Gaming | 55c | 30.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Nightblood Gaming | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Nightblood Gaming | 64c | 29.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Alliance Guardians | 38c | 27.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked Nightblood Gaming | 74c | 26.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Alliance Guardians | 53c | 26.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 347 | 39.8%138 W · 209 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9b…c04fbacked Alliance Guardians | 57c | 25.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3522…188fbacked Nightblood Gaming | 57c | 25.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…dc29backed Nightblood Gaming | 41c | 25.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 193 | 37.8%73 W · 120 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Alliance Guardians | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 575 | 17.7%102 W · 473 L | -71.7wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…2c74backed Alliance Guardians | 56c | 20.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…cff6backed Alliance Guardians | 65c | 19.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Group Stagethis page
- Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Alliance Guardians - Map 2 WinnerNightblood Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.