MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe91c05a859020b9d96200704c0ea28ecd48b1d7cc33ef160fac84ee35a55177b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 54c | 59,183$31,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,958.7 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 46c | 25,000$11,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,500 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 46c | 22,307$10,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,045.51 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 5,145$2,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,696.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 61c | 4,978$3,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,052.98 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 46c | 4,800$2,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,592 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 4,276$1,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,316.88 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 36c | 2,329$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.42 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 62c | 1,480$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.66 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 1,125$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.63 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 45c | 1,005$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.75 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 55c | 640$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…9854backed Over | 46c | 627.08$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.62 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 46c | 543$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.22 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 71c | 497.67$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.32 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Over | 45c | 475.97$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.78 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 43c | 451.27$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.81 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 56c | 447.39$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.29 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 46c | 444.22$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.88 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 46c | 438.34$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.7 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 46c | 400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 62c | 322.29$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.31 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 41c | 321.33$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.92 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 305.86$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.28 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 46c | 282.61$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.61 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 46c | 282.61$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.61 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 45c | 258.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.44 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 47c | 211.17$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.92 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 39c | 210.38$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.38 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf3…50a8backed Over | 46c | 208.33$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Over | 45c | 196$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…2c99backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 46c | 181.96$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.26 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 43c | 181.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 62c | 161.14$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 62c | 161.14$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 55c | 150$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 64c | 116.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 46c | 108.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…c012backed Over | 46c | 104.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…ea41backed Over | 46c | 104.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf04b…049abacked Over | 46c | 104.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…f527backed Over | 46c | 104.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Over | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 46c | 98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 45c | 95.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 41c | 93.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 87.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Over | 71c | 86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 70 | 80%56 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 53c | 77.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…b1aebacked Under | 54c | 76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…cc76backed Over | 46c | 72.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 60.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd6…cfdebacked Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 46c | 52.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Over | 45c | 51.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 46c | 51.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 43c | 50.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 56c | 48.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 49c | 47.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 47.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x232f…8002backed Over | 46c | 42.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…ab77backed Over | 46c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x947d…dff0backed Over | 46c | 41.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fd…9994backed Over | 46c | 41.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -5.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc915…2b84backed Over | 46c | 41.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 39c | 32.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 56c | 32.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…8fb4backed Over | 46c | 29.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.21per pick | 45cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Over | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 46c | 23.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 46c | 22.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…510abacked Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati RedsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.