MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc01c64ece9907239c7123398da6277737595626b65266d8f6d63811261bf7445
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 43c | 10,787$4,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,686.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 56c | 6,039$3,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,643.15 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 44c | 4,992$2,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,196.48 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 56c | 2,953$1,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.16 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 57c | 2,800$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 56c | 2,370$1,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.35 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 2,282$1,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.75 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 56c | 1,932$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.28 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17af…2a45backed Over | 55c | 1,406$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.11 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb68…4ef3backed Under | 43c | 1,252$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.47 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 1,234$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 46c | 778.11$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.16 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 37c | 695$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.15 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…9854backed Under | 46c | 627.08$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.96 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 46c | 622.5$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.35 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 46c | 622.44$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.87 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 24c | 558$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.88 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 45c | 415$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.75 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 56c | 408$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.52 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 56c | 350$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 57c | 306$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.2 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 56c | 259$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.96 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf3…50a8backed Under | 46c | 208.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.54 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Under | 44c | 189.2$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…4245backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 57c | 119$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 56c | 112.36$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 25c | 110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf04b…049abacked Under | 46c | 104.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 57c | 96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 45c | 79.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 58c | 77.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 75c | 75.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6016…1ab5backed Under | 44c | 75.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 54c | 60.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 56c | 56.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9412…730ebacked Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 45c | 43.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…ab77backed Under | 45c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x947d…dff0backed Under | 46c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc915…2b84backed Under | 46c | 41.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…6b58backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Over | 55c | 37.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 42c | 32.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Under | 46c | 29.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 39c | 28.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 38c | 27.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed Under | 46c | 24.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 55c | 22.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati RedsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.