Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will UMF Stjarnan win on 2026-07-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9417c794bfb677e7e5dc688ebfe5b0e6b9fbb81d6f4d602bbdb14b659227958
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 45c | 2,500$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.99 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 55c | 1,277$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.85 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Yes | 59c | 1,219$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6f…1dfebacked Yes | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.07 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 69c | 854.53$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.49 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 41c | 595$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.52 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 41c | 563.07$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.49 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 21c | 557.48$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.76 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked No | 40c | 553.09$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.94 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…f72abacked Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked No | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 57c | 303.73$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.06 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…f420backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +4.9wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Yes | 56c | 266.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 7c | 241.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…c2d9backed Yes | 59c | 224.09$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfe…4a26backed Yes | 60c | 195$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Yes | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed No | 42c | 149.09$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed No | 34c | 146.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Yes | 57c | 142.5$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.28 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed No | 44c | 137.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 42c | 128.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 14c | 127.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 59c | 99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked No | 40c | 95.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 60c | 95.02$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 170 | 59.4%101 W · 69 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 57c | 94.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked No | 42c | 86.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked No | 41c | 71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 42c | 69.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 370 | 43.8%162 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed No | 15c | 66.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Yes | 61c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 61c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…1525backed Yes | 61c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 35c | 47.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…f8d9backed No | 45c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 65c | 42.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbef0…69c8backed Yes | 40c | 42.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 61c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…c118backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 41c | 34.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 171 | 53.8%92 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 58c | 33.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Yes | 58c | 32.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…a670backed Yes | 60c | 31.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 42c | 25.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will UMF Stjarnan win on 2026-07-09?this page
- Will UMF Stjarnan vs. Víkingur end in a draw?No won
- Will Víkingur win on 2026-07-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.