NHL · resolved market
Devils vs. Lightning
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe97d00b57b536e1dd80f75b81e33210df2841913864787a1d7f621841146c114
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Devilsof Devils, Lightning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Devils | 69c | 24,916$17,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,678.41 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Lightning | 33c | 23,392$7,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,695.26 | 315 | 46.3%146 W · 169 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked Lightning | 29c | 14,912$4,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,350.01 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Devils | 42c | 11,741$4,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,810.04 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Devils | 43c | 10,000$4,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,700 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Lightning | 31c | 9,690$3,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,004 | 448 | 48.9%219 W · 229 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Lightning | 57c | 9,248$5,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,271.13 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Lightning | 58c | 7,313$4,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,241.54 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Lightning | 58c | 6,894$3,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,998.65 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6f…ffaabacked Devils | 42c | 6,032$2,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,498.56 | 119 | 47.9%57 W · 62 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Devils | 43c | 5,000$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,850.62 | 316 | 54.7%173 W · 143 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…c3a6backed Lightning | 58c | 5,000$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked Lightning | 57c | 5,000$2,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,849.97 | 249 | 45.4%113 W · 136 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Devils | 42c | 5,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,899.96 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Devils | 42c | 4,000$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,320 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Devils | 42c | 4,000$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,320 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Lightning | 30c | 3,588$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.95 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03cd…9fdabacked Devils | 42c | 2,817$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,633.86 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8df…2521backed Lightning | 58c | 2,006$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.48 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Devils | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Devils | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.99 | 348 | 45.4%158 W · 190 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3d…7422backed Devils | 42c | 1,495$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.1 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Lightning | 31c | 1,290$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Lightning | 58c | 1,100$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633 | 892 | 49.9%445 W · 447 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Devils | 42c | 1,080$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.6 | 353 | 49.6%175 W · 178 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…ce1fbacked Lightning | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Lightning | 20c | 905.49$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.59 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea9…e3c0backed Lightning | 58c | 750$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Devils | 70c | 725$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.32 | 854 | 64.2%548 W · 306 L | +64.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Devils | 42c | 680$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.63 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Devils | 42c | 600$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Devils | 42c | 600$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…48a9backed Lightning | 17c | 386.32$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +9.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…c616backed Lightning | 13c | 385.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9195…72a4backed Lightning | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Lightning | 38c | 350$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12cb…cc16backed Lightning | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Devils | 73c | 287.91$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.86 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Lightning | 19c | 257.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 1,354 | 52.6%712 W · 642 L | +46.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked Lightning | 59c | 236.6$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Devils | 68c | 226$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 8c | 219.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Devils | 42c | 200$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 187 | 50.3%94 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Devils | 42c | 199.85$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.91 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Lightning | 58c | 189.66$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Lightning | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…806ebacked Lightning | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19c3…694abacked Devils | 44c | 170.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Lightning | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Devils | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -6.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Devils | 70c | 148$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Lightning | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a1…44cebacked Lightning | 58c | 106.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59f0…604abacked Devils | 43c | 105.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Lightning | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 261 | 36%94 W · 167 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…faa8backed Devils | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Devils | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 439 | 44.6%196 W · 243 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4db6…9420backed Devils | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…01fabacked Devils | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 199 | 42.7%85 W · 114 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Lightning | 17c | 97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Lightning | 58c | 83.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Devils | 74c | 82.84$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Devils | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 1,087 | 45.1%490 W · 597 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2567…2371backed Lightning | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Lightning | 26c | 74.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…d532backed Lightning | 23c | 71.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebcb…3e71backed Lightning | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Lightning | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Lightning | 58c | 56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 1,079 | 54.3%586 W · 493 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed Lightning | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Devils | 42c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a6…a4acbacked Devils | 77c | 47.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…647bbacked Devils | 44c | 47.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Devils | 43c | 47.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 632 | 49.5%313 W · 319 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Devils | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked Devils | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe530…a2cabacked Devils | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x580b…5461backed Lightning | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…7239backed Lightning | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Lightning | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 260 | 59.6%155 W · 105 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.