TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or below on June 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,013
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,922

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,013 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4885…2236backed Yes1c1,060$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.67047.1%33 W · 37 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes21c304.02$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.065,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd53b…fc94backed No37c259.91$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.542560%15 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes5c214.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.54839.6%19 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x103e…78b5backed Yes24c210.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016134.2%55 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes28c205.72$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.569,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfcb…bf61backed No69c192.64$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.082475%18 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes65c169.81$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.591,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No58c167.26$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.972,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No21c153.95$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.984,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10e0…92e4backed Yes52c152.73$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9927744%122 W · 155 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Yes37c150$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5516432.9%54 W · 110 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+47.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No42c143.55$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.246824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf183…ec2cbacked Yes57c138.97$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x888d…ff8fbacked No79c132.41$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.862556%14 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes75c123.37$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.0531124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked No49c122.59$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.1345130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No33c120.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.656,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No70c117.37$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26b6…94b8backed Yes14c100.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.196131.1%19 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed No61c99.99$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3925175.7%190 W · 61 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes12c97.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.714,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No25c96.28$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.262,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked Yes71c94.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1639966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes71c88.23$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.051,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No36c83.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.415,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No41c81.4$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3289661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes65c78.55$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4233561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4f99…5936backed Yes60c76$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.22742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes59c70.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7399961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes19c69.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1590734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cca…17e5backed Yes74c67.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503461.8%21 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes36c67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.233,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7615…308abacked No33c61.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7118441.3%76 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No25c60.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.551,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes28c60.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9365934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.82,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba1…2769backed Yes47c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.210640.6%43 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes35c56.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.992,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes59c54.7$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.462,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes22c53.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.677,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x28bc…c1b8backed Yes31c50.85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.756061.7%37 W · 23 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b62…c3cbbacked Yes63c50.6$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes54c50.03$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.93,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7166…6922backed No49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.52437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf27…01b0backed Yes78c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d6…64fbbacked No69c49.96$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4921068.6%144 W · 66 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No63c48.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.829,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0091…3282backed No66c47.19$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.043357.6%19 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No27c44$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.915,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes36c42.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.192,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No25c41.88$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4161752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ee8…76bebacked No32c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.21070%7 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01eb…b04abacked Yes51c39.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.989341.9%39 W · 54 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No49c37.06$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.911,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes74c34.55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.531,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes45c33.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.728650%43 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No74c32.57$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5711977.3%92 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No46c32.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.612,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes63c31.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed No62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.446452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No35c30$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.555,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b27…7d50backed Yes38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.42313%3 W · 20 L-5.5wins-0.24per pick37cpaid-71.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xd521…1889backed No51c28.84$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.093470.6%24 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No62c28.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8662770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No59c25.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4297570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No63c25.09$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1964960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdc2…1a7bbacked Yes57c24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes66c23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.162,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed Yes64c23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6616456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No65c23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0979255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.648149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf93…5d2abacked No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.28962.9%56 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.41,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed Yes61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2943842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes66c19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.62,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes60c19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.481855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No66c18.2$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.183,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x516f…8352backed Yes79c17.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick68cpaid-40.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed No69c17.37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3559144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d46…f816backed No66c17.2$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.855851.7%30 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes72c16.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8415749%77 W · 80 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No71c16.03$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7180957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No77c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.54,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb07c…6c36backed Yes80c15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123759.5%22 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…f17cbacked Yes72c14.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.794047.5%19 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.