Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1496cb85a59262490a7bf11e12d30f0dccfb40c923b9d653bd97064ff7cadcc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 31c | 448.29$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.04 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 67c | 304.4$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 269.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 184$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 158.65$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.94 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 51c | 126.19$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 125.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 117.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 111.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 36c | 108$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.81 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 19c | 105.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 73c | 104$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 50c | 92.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 32c | 80.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 78.02$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 75.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf183…ec2cbacked Yes | 43c | 65.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 41c | 56.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 55.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb051…9bfbbacked Yes | 28c | 54.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 65c | 52.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 68c | 50.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 50.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 26c | 48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 34c | 45.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 44.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 40c | 43.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 26c | 43.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 61c | 35.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 74c | 35.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 32.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe801…764fbacked No | 78c | 26.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 59c | 25.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 22.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 62c | 21.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 77c | 21.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 63c | 21.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e4…5583backed Yes | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 72c | 20.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 19.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 68c | 17.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or below on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.