CS2 · resolved market
FISSURE Playground 2: FURIA vs. Liquid
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9daec51c9eacc895e3679e0485372ba2ea578eccb7761365efadc34a5fc1a68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FURIAof FURIA, Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked FURIA | 61c | 65,949$40,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,908.18 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Liquid | 41c | 44,933$18,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,420.25 | 233 | 55.4%129 W · 104 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…7c8cbacked Liquid | 32c | 10,000$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 214 | 24.8%53 W · 161 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed Liquid | 32c | 7,302$2,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,347.64 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Liquid | 30c | 7,118$2,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,147.94 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Liquid | 41c | 6,040$2,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,449.48 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Liquid | 32c | 4,680$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.65 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed FURIA | 68c | 3,676$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.47 | 196 | 60.7%119 W · 77 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Liquid | 32c | 3,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 139 | 54.7%76 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…0dc4backed FURIA | 80c | 2,941$2,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.68 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed FURIA | 68c | 2,157$1,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.36 | 258 | 42.2%109 W · 149 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…de5abacked Liquid | 53c | 1,735$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913 | 244 | 40.6%99 W · 145 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe81d…16bfbacked Liquid | 59c | 1,700$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed FURIA | 67c | 1,599$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.56 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed FURIA | 61c | 1,475$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.25 | 121 | 31.4%38 W · 83 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc5…53c3backed FURIA | 71c | 1,425$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.15 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked FURIA | 54c | 1,403$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.03 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x988d…9899backed Liquid | 32c | 1,264$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.49 | 263 | 44.5%117 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Liquid | 52c | 1,249$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.5 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…7465backed Liquid | 34c | 1,249$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.95 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…91b0backed FURIA | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd32a…504cbacked FURIA | 60c | 1,154$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.77 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed Liquid | 33c | 1,153$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.5 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Liquid | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked FURIA | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 817 | 51.7%422 W · 395 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed FURIA | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked FURIA | 59c | 981.36$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.36 | 353 | 41.6%147 W · 206 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed FURIA | 53c | 955.35$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.8 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked FURIA | 69c | 870$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.7 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Liquid | 31c | 699.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed FURIA | 69c | 689$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.59 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed FURIA | 44c | 600$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 463 | 40.8%189 W · 274 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed FURIA | 74c | 500.57$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.15 | 426 | 38%162 W · 264 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Liquid | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf543…b443backed FURIA | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…c82fbacked FURIA | 68c | 417.96$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.75 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -8.6wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8a…11d3backed FURIA | 44c | 359.59$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…79f9backed Liquid | 31c | 330$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…49eabacked FURIA | 55c | 320.35$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.03 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Liquid | 32c | 307.77$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.49 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2a…4304backed FURIA | 68c | 219.54$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d5…9562backed FURIA | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed FURIA | 61c | 199$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.61 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Liquid | 40c | 197.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…c206backed FURIA | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Liquid | 10c | 185$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed FURIA | 51c | 176.62$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.05 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Liquid | 35c | 176$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed FURIA | 69c | 159.42$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…39c0backed Liquid | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…9297backed Liquid | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…0b71backed FURIA | 68c | 148.72$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed FURIA | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…edd6backed FURIA | 68c | 142.65$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe63e…710ebacked FURIA | 68c | 136.75$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c6…1dbdbacked FURIA | 69c | 133.67$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a4…971ebacked FURIA | 68c | 126.47$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…e633backed Liquid | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 300 | 39.7%119 W · 181 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc82…3ce9backed FURIA | 69c | 114.06$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed FURIA | 63c | 107.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…f573backed Liquid | 55c | 106.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Liquid | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Liquid | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Liquid | 46c | 91.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e8…da92backed Liquid | 18c | 85.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…4fb1backed FURIA | 67c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed FURIA | 68c | 73.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be2…8fa3backed FURIA | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 217 | 62.7%136 W · 81 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…f332backed FURIA | 63c | 67.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Liquid | 37c | 67.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Liquid | 35c | 62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 317 | 35.6%113 W · 204 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…fc6fbacked FURIA | 68c | 58.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddd…6144backed Liquid | 35c | 57.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…1f03backed Liquid | 37c | 56.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked FURIA | 63c | 50.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a0…4038backed FURIA | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Liquid | 23c | 44.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Liquid | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eff…8490backed Liquid | 54c | 35.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed Liquid | 32c | 32.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…7932backed FURIA | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 283 | 46.6%132 W · 151 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked FURIA | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d6…851dbacked FURIA | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.