Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9e90e908a3ab0e79e99fd18f13a1aed4828d0afdb797061329718f01d6d71a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 76c | 1,313$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.57 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 5c | 828.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 3c | 527.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4772…15edbacked Yes | 54c | 296.6$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…9412backed No | 4c | 277.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed No | 55c | 244.57$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 42c | 240.97$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.83 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…5844backed Yes | 46c | 218.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.84 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 35c | 202.37$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.94 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 39c | 200.05$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.71 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 199.06$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.47 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 187.86$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 19c | 185.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 9c | 181.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 51c | 170$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.95 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…690fbacked Yes | 50c | 162.42$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 157.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 37c | 137.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.09 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 12c | 135.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 45c | 121$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 62c | 120.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed No | 45c | 119.86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 62c | 119.4$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.49 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x016a…6f6fbacked Yes | 42c | 118.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 116.27$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 111.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb0…3ad3backed Yes | 54c | 111.05$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 57c | 109.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7e…3c7dbacked No | 45c | 107.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 72c | 95.16$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…a105backed No | 47c | 95.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed No | 45c | 95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb954…c00dbacked Yes | 53c | 93.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e8…8787backed No | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c52…1411backed No | 46c | 70.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked No | 46c | 63.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked Yes | 65c | 57.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…7513backed Yes | 36c | 55.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 50c | 54.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 60c | 54.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 48c | 52.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 71c | 51.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…36cdbacked No | 28c | 51.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 63c | 48.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…3058backed No | 42c | 47.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 57c | 46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 45.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 53c | 45.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c1…d67cbacked Yes | 53c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…5cbebacked No | 56c | 42.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 42.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 41.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 46c | 41.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 50c | 39.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 32c | 38.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 42c | 34.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 64c | 33.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dc…1108backed No | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 61c | 29.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…922ebacked No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 54c | 28.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…71a8backed No | 52c | 28.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 28.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…d646backed No | 49c | 27.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 58c | 27.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 62c | 25.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 58c | 25.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 47c | 25.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 42c | 25.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf646…0765backed Yes | 53c | 24.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 58c | 24.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 79c | 23.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 51c | 23.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…9e9ebacked No | 65c | 23.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 87.2%34 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 64c | 21.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75a1…6afbbacked Yes | 50c | 20.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x278a…dfddbacked No | 50c | 20.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e8…81c0backed No | 49c | 20.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe131…cf95backed No | 49c | 20.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21bc…1fe9backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 58c | 18.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 65c | 16.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.