Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa32d7812cf40d767521ba5acb02d79bc3f4b8fec63b2c12385efb9ea9df31458
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked Yes | 4c | 478.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 416.24$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 316.89$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.98 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 71c | 316.12$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.71 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 31c | 246.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 34c | 242.23$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.47 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 31c | 218.72$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 204.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 14c | 199.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 31c | 148.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 136.5$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 32c | 132.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016a…6f6fbacked Yes | 28c | 99.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 31c | 96.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 92.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 33c | 89.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 15c | 88.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 69c | 79.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 70c | 71.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 57.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 65c | 57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 56.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 21c | 55.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 69c | 50.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 30c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 33c | 45.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…7b9bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912d…02fcbacked No | 67c | 38.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 39c | 38.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 69c | 36.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 69c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 32c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 69c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…7d5dbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…9e9ebacked No | 71c | 28.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 39 | 87.2%34 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 71c | 27.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc538…c555backed No | 69c | 26.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 68c | 23.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 67c | 22.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 66c | 22.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f5…47c7backed No | 70c | 21.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 67c | 20.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 68c | 20.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…e40ebacked No | 71c | 19.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 71c | 19.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 69c | 16.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 16.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6e…a704backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.