TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Refuserof Team Refuser, Game Master
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$83,488
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$94,064

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,488 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Refuser71c10,018$7,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,952.871,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Refuser71c7,781$5,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,253.2980256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked Team Refuser77c5,367$4,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.1635960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Refuser62c4,698$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,797.621,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Game Master5c3,710$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.965625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Game Master34c3,045$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.2554246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Game Master31c3,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9301,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13b8…d1afbacked Team Refuser69c2,689$1,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.541346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed Game Master28c2,313$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.092524%6 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed Game Master29c2,186$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.4615639.1%61 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Game Master25c1,975$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.2169132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc368…a3c4backed Game Master30c1,929$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.54946.9%23 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Game Master36c1,886$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.071,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Game Master45c1,777$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80053451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Game Master35c1,727$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.441,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Game Master33c1,621$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.772,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked Game Master34c1,469$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.6419547.7%93 W · 102 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Game Master36c1,409$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50912740.2%51 W · 76 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Game Master25c1,296$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.9271143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked Game Master41c1,213$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005253.8%28 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2230…c3b7backed Game Master34c1,135$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.122839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Game Master18c1,076$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.932,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Game Master38c1,034$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.6529243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ff0…c7aabacked Game Master37c1,014$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.18933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Game Master25c1,002$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.461,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Game Master1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed Game Master36c993.16$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36018437.5%69 W · 115 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ed…085abacked Game Master33c989.96$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.694544.4%20 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x685f…c586backed Team Refuser66c988.6$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.422548%12 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-16.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed Team Refuser50c928$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46428347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Game Master27c874.92$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.591,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cde…96e2backed Game Master33c863.94$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.312748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88aa…2f5ebacked Game Master33c847.5$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.063455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9c1…4ebbbacked Game Master38c846.83$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Team Refuser74c833$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.6366947.1%315 W · 354 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Team Refuser71c825.77$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.0658746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Refuser67c777.14$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.271,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Team Refuser70c749.99$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22532441.7%135 W · 189 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Game Master37c734.53$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.0834041.2%140 W · 200 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed Game Master35c716.98$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.1837745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13ee…01aebacked Game Master33c714$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.856744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Game Master30c701.16$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.7789938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Game Master12c699.99$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.596245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cec…d241backed Game Master39c641.03$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Team Refuser68c562.5$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18017546.9%82 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc910…8bbcbacked Game Master35c542.86$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19011656%65 W · 51 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Game Master31c500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15574549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ff8…5e5dbacked Team Refuser74c482.91$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.517361.6%45 W · 28 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Team Refuser60c476.53$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.2452046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Game Master37c474$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.5817443.1%75 W · 99 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Team Refuser66c454$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.3641455.6%230 W · 184 L+41.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Game Master25c450$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.7689238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Game Master35c438.53$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.051,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Game Master3c435.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4740534.6%140 W · 265 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed Game Master9c432.59$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.813323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked Team Refuser50c403.65$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.9459254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Game Master27c398.54$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.221,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Game Master36c384.21$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14057735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b13…37dbbacked Team Refuser66c374.09$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.443452.9%18 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed Team Refuser75c369.65$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.5825359.3%150 W · 103 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7126…bfcbbacked Team Refuser58c343.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.1411249.1%55 W · 57 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e8a…a117backed Game Master37c337.93$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.681711.8%2 W · 15 L-5.4wins-0.32per pick43cpaid-82.9%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Team Refuser67c298.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.5116256.8%92 W · 70 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Game Master24c297.08$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9656945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec41…1134backed Game Master37c280$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.615854.4%86 W · 72 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bf3…4f00backed Game Master35c265.37$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.048645.3%39 W · 47 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Game Master33c259$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3240442.3%171 W · 233 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe61a…292dbacked Team Refuser74c256.77$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.4922558.2%131 W · 94 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…4f6dbacked Team Refuser67c255.82$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.821145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Team Refuser65c250$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.565863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed Team Refuser55c249.99$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.4918143.6%79 W · 102 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Game Master33c244.84$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1928544.9%128 W · 157 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Team Refuser73c226.03$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0315069.3%104 W · 46 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick73cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5d9…b188backed Game Master22c208.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.189855.1%54 W · 44 L+7.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Game Master28c207.35$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1553538.5%206 W · 329 L-26.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Team Refuser70c206.66$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6261456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e5f…6ee5backed Game Master35c202.77$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.984944.9%22 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Game Master32c200$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9987645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed Game Master50c177.05$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888251.2%42 W · 40 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Game Master20c174.02$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.168345.8%313 W · 370 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Refuser54c154.9$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.861,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Game Master31c150.79$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9565647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc75…af4dbacked Game Master19c150$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.59150.5%46 W · 45 L+12.5wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+23.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7160…cce2backed Game Master35c149.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.52245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid+56.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked Team Refuser69c149.55$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.414943%64 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked Team Refuser51c137.24$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2554648.5%265 W · 281 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33af…5fa9backed Team Refuser65c134.1$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.211250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec61…f8a1backed Team Refuser59c120$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.22334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x450e…4fddbacked Team Refuser71c111.66$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3811758.1%68 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf98b…57bbbacked Game Master39c110.95$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.741864.1%268 W · 150 L+17.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a77…e59dbacked Game Master24c110.01$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3322031.8%70 W · 150 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bda…c134backed Game Master13c108.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.36450%32 W · 32 L-8.4wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-26.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8c97…5c66backed Game Master31c96.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304250%21 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48ba…d81dbacked Game Master36c95.32$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7456343.9%247 W · 316 L-1.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Team Refuser74c91.86$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1881345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Team Refuser62c90$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.69952.5%52 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0162…f21cbacked Team Refuser65c89.33$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85b2…0ab9backed Game Master34c85.29$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297753.2%41 W · 36 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Game Master19c84.64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0825351.4%130 W · 123 L+23.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x689a…16d0backed Team Refuser65c84.02$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.03425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-61.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.