TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Refuserof Team Refuser, Game Master
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,137
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$54,457

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,137 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c5b…b82bbacked Team Refuser66c3,470$2,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,196.31070%7 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fac…b89abacked Team Refuser66c2,118$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.5222450%112 W · 112 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Game Master35c1,700$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59581029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Game Master36c1,636$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.3477256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Refuser65c1,541$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.181,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Game Master34c1,005$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.6929243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Game Master1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Game Master7c997.47$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5669132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Game Master22c985.45$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.082,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Game Master37c956.7$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.535836.2%21 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Game Master20c951.54$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.3123342.9%100 W · 133 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Game Master34c882.35$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020827.9%58 W · 150 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked Team Refuser61c865.94$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.7259254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Team Refuser76c849.36$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.141455.6%230 W · 184 L+41.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Game Master19c836.24$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.0752046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6200…7d23backed Game Master4c692.92$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.682227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Game Master16c689$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.121,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed Team Refuser66c598.25$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf479…2d49backed Game Master34c588.24$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-40%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5dd0…9192backed Game Master34c588.23$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c27…97c2backed Game Master34c518.25$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.22835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Game Master34c500.1$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.0319643.9%86 W · 110 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed Team Refuser64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18012250%61 W · 61 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8494…814abacked Game Master34c500$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1701323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Game Master34c499.99$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1702835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Game Master35c476.91$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.554639.1%18 W · 28 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb07e…2b92backed Game Master37c457.99$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.71742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9048…d351backed Game Master38c422.53$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1609640.6%39 W · 57 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Game Master17c400.18$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0371342.5%303 W · 410 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked Game Master25c396.48$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6514943%64 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa639…3075backed Team Refuser63c363.02$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.781266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+24.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Team Refuser80c330$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.2330146.2%139 W · 162 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Game Master10c315.43$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0289238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Team Refuser63c300$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1111,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9224…b43bbacked Game Master27c250$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.916942.6%72 W · 97 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Game Master25c237.47$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.268345.8%313 W · 370 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Team Refuser70c236.62$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.6215069.3%104 W · 46 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick73cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x53b4…2e88backed Game Master34c210.35$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Game Master36c195.05$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7057735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Game Master25c191.79$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3256945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Game Master17c191.43$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2578516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x0593…9712backed Team Refuser78c186.07$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1221769.1%150 W · 67 L+16.9wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Game Master17c181.3$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6516539.4%65 W · 100 L-0.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Team Refuser76c176.84$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6166947.1%315 W · 354 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Game Master34c170$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.832441.7%135 W · 189 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd4…7401backed Game Master16c166$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5635430.5%108 W · 246 L-27.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked Team Refuser63c158.28$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.289754.6%53 W · 44 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d3b…eedbbacked Team Refuser64c153.56$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.283161.3%19 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed Game Master16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410937.6%41 W · 68 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4572…47e7backed Game Master35c150$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.540844.1%180 W · 228 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Team Refuser68c145$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9264547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1052…441bbacked Team Refuser73c137.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.53754.1%20 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1816…2ee6backed Game Master28c137$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3637549.3%185 W · 190 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Game Master19c136.64$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7122543.6%98 W · 127 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Game Master16c133.83$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.411,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf346…1b8ebacked Game Master22c130$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.622438.8%87 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec41…1134backed Team Refuser80c120$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2415854.4%86 W · 72 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5b6…3740backed Game Master17c116.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Team Refuser64c100.26$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0925348.6%123 W · 130 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Game Master37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3717737.9%67 W · 110 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Game Master15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1531251.3%160 W · 152 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Team Refuser76c98.92$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9481345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Team Refuser65c91.18$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8580544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Team Refuser66c88.17$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9873554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Team Refuser69c86.04$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6146451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x912e…0eaebacked Game Master16c72.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.547424.3%18 W · 56 L-8.3wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-33.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Game Master36c64.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.331,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb6…a2fcbacked Game Master16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-50.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa55c…1066backed Game Master35c60.37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.136331.7%20 W · 43 L-8.5wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2ca8…7e67backed Game Master34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.41942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+41.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Game Master37c58.14$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.791553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b0b…fe3fbacked Game Master36c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26d0…566ebacked Game Master20c55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114353.5%23 W · 20 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x419b…6ea1backed Game Master37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2022453.1%119 W · 105 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Game Master33c54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8224636.6%90 W · 156 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Game Master27c52.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2311330.1%34 W · 79 L-16.7wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-46.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Game Master41c49.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0458943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc29c…1e43backed Team Refuser67c44.78$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.784250%21 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ad6…c1c4backed Game Master35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.89326.9%25 W · 68 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-25.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6707…d4d8backed Team Refuser66c37.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8813764.2%88 W · 49 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31dc…cd45backed Team Refuser60c32.08$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.838655.8%48 W · 38 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xad2c…4eecbacked Team Refuser64c31.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3713435.8%48 W · 86 L-9.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa938…7abdbacked Team Refuser66c31.24$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.621070%7 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd533…d6a1backed Game Master36c31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.169238%35 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc19d…aea3backed Game Master38c28.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa142…49d0backed Team Refuser66c27.77$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f6…f7e6backed Team Refuser64c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.13666.7%24 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed Team Refuser66c22.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.814557.8%26 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b86…5552backed Team Refuser64c22.18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.984957.1%28 W · 21 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick69cpaid-17.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd7b7…3852backed Team Refuser65c19.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.732181%17 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick69cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x646a…cd90backed Team Refuser70c18.57$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.573826.3%10 W · 28 L-5.8wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0cf8…180dbacked Team Refuser74c16.15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.151540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f2c…d0dfbacked Team Refuser64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.631968.4%13 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick69cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Team Refuser80c15.48$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.1693546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.