Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea84fe91a15c013ffc0e495580d4f8d4e94f2d507ef948d6445d3eb5b789924e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 27c | 2,719$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,997.54 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 813.3$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 628.35$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 504$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.68 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 450.36$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 443.03$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.84 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 29c | 431.75$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.75 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…700cbacked No | 74c | 400$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 26c | 399.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.88 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 360$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.48 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3929…afd2backed No | 48c | 314.34$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 304.99$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.99 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 20c | 297.29$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.05 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 296.16$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.48 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 11c | 246.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 47c | 240.78$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.84 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 65c | 236.92$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 66c | 227.2$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 59c | 219.08$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.93 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 57c | 218.35$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.18 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 74c | 213$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.62 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 70c | 200.26$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.95 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 198.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.12 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 63c | 185.16$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.57 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 183.86$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed No | 65c | 172$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.45 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 171.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 9c | 150.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x36a2…b8fabacked No | 62c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.29 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 77c | 149.83$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.82 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 149$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.77 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 34c | 149$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.34 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 148.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.27 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 29c | 147.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.96 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 34c | 144.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.69 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 142$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 75c | 137.32$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 74c | 135.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 66c | 130.85$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 72c | 123.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.47 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 120$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 108.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 36c | 105.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8517…b931backed No | 76c | 105.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a57…0765backed No | 72c | 103.8$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b6…cd1fbacked No | 78c | 102$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 42c | 100.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…0ea2backed No | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 93.13$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 49c | 89.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 69c | 89.22$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 69c | 87.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 68c | 84.84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 25c | 83.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 76c | 75.63$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 72c | 71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 45c | 67.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 45c | 67.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 78c | 61.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 69c | 59.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 44c | 58.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 71c | 57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 63c | 56.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 70c | 55.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 28c | 53.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeef…b7f7backed Yes | 27c | 53.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 51.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 66c | 51.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 47c | 50.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…d211backed Yes | 27c | 50.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf94e…b2c7backed Yes | 27c | 48.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9434…d8d8backed Yes | 27c | 46.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 70c | 46.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 43c | 46.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 28c | 45.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 26c | 45.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 70c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 61c | 44.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 50c | 40.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20b8…fc2fbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 67c | 39.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 42c | 38.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 72c | 35.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 41c | 35.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 32c | 33.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 63c | 32.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.