Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd85a91005d91be69c13233d9a4fd0462d5a04626ad7d76c9e3bbeabf464f292e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81f0…0ea2backed Yes | 61c | 1,213$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 39c | 1,189$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.21 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 58c | 875.46$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.86 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 35c | 767.91$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 694.44$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.54 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 65c | 533$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 34c | 470.75$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.99 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 45c | 426.51$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.88 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 38c | 425$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 66c | 423.29$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 77c | 338.62$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.01 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 336.42$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.93 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 324$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 65c | 311.32$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.85 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 65c | 303.79$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.23 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 20c | 299.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 73c | 275.25$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 38c | 192.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.71 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 63c | 190.05$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 66c | 182.02$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 27c | 177.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.61 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 33c | 177.04$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.06 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 62c | 164.32$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 35c | 151.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 72c | 149.49$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.34 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 56c | 142.41$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.51 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 61c | 130.55$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 20c | 123.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 53c | 121.21$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 73c | 118.2$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 39c | 113.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 41c | 104.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 40c | 104.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 61c | 101.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 97.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 65c | 94.57$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 62c | 88.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 35c | 82.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 29c | 81.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…6a56backed Yes | 71c | 80.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x266b…afaabacked No | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 66c | 75.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 42c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 42c | 73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 48c | 69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 66.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 42c | 65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 60c | 64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c5…ed20backed Yes | 52c | 63.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 42c | 63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 42c | 62.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed Yes | 59c | 60.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb310…aad6backed Yes | 74c | 59.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc838…b09cbacked Yes | 74c | 59.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 58c | 58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 74c | 57.46$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 27c | 57.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 58c | 56.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 29c | 56.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 28c | 54.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf35…3574backed Yes | 74c | 53.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed Yes | 62c | 51.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 24c | 48.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…1338backed No | 69c | 46.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 35c | 46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 41c | 45.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…c64fbacked Yes | 66c | 45.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 36c | 44.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 42c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5540…20b2backed Yes | 64c | 43.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…ba23backed Yes | 66c | 41.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 34c | 40.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 67c | 37.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 39c | 36.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 60c | 35.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 29c | 34.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Yes | 66c | 34.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 71c | 34.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…f949backed Yes | 63c | 33.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 67c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 35c | 29.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79f8…7ffebacked Yes | 68c | 29.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 53c | 28.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 41c | 27.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe14…d255backed Yes | 57c | 26.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 63c | 24.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 24.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 52c | 22.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 63c | 21.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf94e…b2c7backed Yes | 60c | 21.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.