Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea90a515cd8cb2270a769ff1f223226307cc83ab938290ff99f803e4668a9713

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 24, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $89,920
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $106,030

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,920 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over	11c	21,077$2,299 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18,778	136	30.9%42 W · 94 L	-7.4wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	76c	15,648$11,902 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,902.48	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	49c	8,088$3,971 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,971.1	4,744	41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L	+28.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd10c…0645backed Over	70c	6,982$4,911 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,071.38	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Under	80c	4,327$3,458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,457.82	76	50%38 W · 38 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under	40c	3,533$1,413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,412.81	746	44.8%334 W · 412 L	-7.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Over	25c	2,866$725 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,141.22	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	+99.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over	28c	2,534$707 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,827.01	966	45.4%439 W · 527 L	+12.4wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Over	10c	2,471$247 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,224.27	63	17.5%11 W · 52 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under	27c	2,145$579 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$579.37	594	45.5%270 W · 324 L	-15.8wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over	20c	1,483$295 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,188.69	413	43.3%179 W · 234 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf541…ac67backed Over	65c	1,202$784 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$418.76	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.13per pick	75cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over	68c	1,071$728 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$343.1	827	63%521 W · 306 L	+113.2wins	+0.14per pick	49cpaid	+41.9%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	30c	819.39$247 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$572.27	611	43.7%267 W · 344 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under	43c	751.33$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.78	489	50.1%245 W · 244 L	+18.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	52c	746.65$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.75	1,934	42.4%820 W · 1,114 L	-43.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Over	80c	672.3$538 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.46	323	45.2%146 W · 177 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe33d…9512backed Over	20c	516.01$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$412.23	46	37%17 W · 29 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under	73c	512.89$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.7	1,012	33.2%336 W · 676 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae5…4f22backed Over	68c	500$340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160	91	57.1%52 W · 39 L	-6.8wins	-0.07per pick	65cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Under	19c	426.62$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.65	141	28.4%40 W · 101 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Over	64c	391.92$252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$139.76	1,163	57.4%667 W · 496 L	+40.4wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5140…9951backed Over	51c	380.63$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.51	33	54.5%18 W · 15 L	-3.8wins	-0.11per pick	66cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Over	11c	378.64$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$336.99	228	32.9%75 W · 153 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Over	29c	330.14$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234.4	192	44.3%85 W · 107 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Over	80c	247$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.4	121	39.7%48 W · 73 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57bf…0169backed Over	52c	242.8$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.54	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.14per pick	61cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Over	24c	239.99$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.39	137	21.2%29 W · 108 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Under	17c	200$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x191a…b47dbacked Under	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Over	20c	191.33$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153.95	212	50%106 W · 106 L	+9.5wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6472…bac1backed Over	11c	184.93$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164.59	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.89per pick	11cpaid	+809.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fdc…2234backed Under	18c	180.05$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.21	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb7c…82f2backed Over	11c	172.11$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153.18	136	35.3%48 W · 88 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over	28c	171.65$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.59	140	55%77 W · 63 L	+18.4wins	+0.13per pick	42cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc582…853cbacked Under	12c	160$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	47	12.8%6 W · 41 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf26f…8f93backed Under	11c	159.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	50	16%8 W · 42 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under	18c	149.33$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.88	721	42.7%308 W · 413 L	+15.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed Under	72c	147.47$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.79	61	57.4%35 W · 26 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2be0…6deebacked Under	66c	144.76$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.67	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.6wins	-0.21per pick	55cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc482…b505backed Under	40c	142.8$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.52	73	42.5%31 W · 42 L	-7.9wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed Over	68c	137.69$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.96	252	56%141 W · 111 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fad…a796backed Under	19c	106.54$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.05	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8796…c744backed Over	72c	104$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.12	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa203…11bcbacked Under	43c	99.41$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.58	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-26%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under	31c	96.71$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.99	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65e6…293ebacked Under	13c	96.5$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.26	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over	63c	96.22$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.06	71	43.7%31 W · 40 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc454…8c31backed Under	31c	95.86$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.72	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Over	78c	92.59$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.37	406	40.9%166 W · 240 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under	23c	89.03$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.32	188	42.6%80 W · 108 L	-5.3wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6924…1455backed Under	47c	82.4$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.73	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe697…708fbacked Under	48c	82.04$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.06	189	61.9%117 W · 72 L	+6.4wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef8a…7035backed Over	77c	77.23$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.76	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	76cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Over	60c	74.45$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.08	158	58.2%92 W · 66 L	+10.5wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbc4…b2f8backed Over	69c	72.25$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.4	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	61cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa2d…d35bbacked Over	22c	72$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.09	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0928…7200backed Over	80c	67.85$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.57	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaad3…d0d2backed Under	56c	65.8$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.85	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf689…3e3fbacked Over	24c	61.21$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.52	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Over	55c	60$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	71	57.7%41 W · 30 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xade7…9d34backed Under	56c	58.37$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.85	412	60.2%248 W · 164 L	+22.5wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x82be…172cbacked Over	40c	54.23$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.54	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.13per pick	27cpaid	+33%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3217…1194backed Over	80c	51.64$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.33	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	69cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Over	49c	49.46$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.22	408	41.9%171 W · 237 L	-8.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc203…8beebacked Under	70c	48.58$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.78	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.9wins	-0.37per pick	62cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x125c…f50abacked Over	46c	46.28$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.99	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under	71c	44.71$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.77	432	41.9%181 W · 251 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4148…4397backed Over	56c	34.77$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	37	43.2%16 W · 21 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b79…6a80backed Under	66c	25.97$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.07	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	68cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39f8…063fbacked Under	41c	25.01$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3092…c9a8backed Over	79c	18.88$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.96	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+65.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa3b…8568backed Over	80c	18.69$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.74	27	63%17 W · 10 L	+2.7wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5this page
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
Spread: Sunderland AFC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event