Premier League · resolved market
Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65526d1920e2932801774304a39e578e226c672ed75c2e47a7667e4230527847
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 24c | 11,156$2,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,513.87 | 136 | 30.9%42 W · 94 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 2,959$2,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,271.83 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 20c | 1,250$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over | 23c | 1,042$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.95 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 1,015$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.34 | 4,696 | 41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 54c | 915.97$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.54 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 47c | 888$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.36 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 17c | 804.88$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.05 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 75c | 639.85$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.8 | 221 | 46.2%102 W · 119 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 74c | 570.31$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.43 | 1,615 | 34.9%564 W · 1,051 L | -28.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 77c | 539.68$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.59 | 578 | 47.8%276 W · 302 L | +18.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 76c | 443.48$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.04 | 1,161 | 57.4%666 W · 495 L | +40.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 76c | 327.99$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.27 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x840d…3708backed Under | 77c | 288.89$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.45 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 77c | 266.27$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.03 | 292 | 50%146 W · 146 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 77c | 256.16$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.24 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…8ce5backed Under | 77c | 254.44$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.92 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 76c | 250$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 329 | 51.4%169 W · 160 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 22c | 248.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.04 | 212 | 50%106 W · 106 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 69c | 206.77$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.57 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 23c | 203.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.51 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82be…172cbacked Over | 24c | 197.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 23c | 186.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.69 | 350 | 28.9%101 W · 249 L | -19.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 77c | 176.41$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.84 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…9c06backed Over | 23c | 165.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.28 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 60c | 155.69$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.41 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 18c | 136.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 964 | 45.4%438 W · 526 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Under | 78c | 126.51$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Under | 77c | 121.13$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.27 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 18c | 103.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 76c | 101.85$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 808 | 53.6%433 W · 375 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Under | 69c | 98.14$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.72 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…108cbacked Under | 78c | 97.41$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 23c | 95.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.51 | 1,923 | 42.4%815 W · 1,108 L | -42.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 22c | 90.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…7999backed Over | 22c | 89.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Under | 78c | 79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 142 | 58.5%83 W · 59 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…6deebacked Under | 75c | 75.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Under | 66c | 74.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 76c | 69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 1,589 | 53.3%847 W · 742 L | +39.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Over | 29c | 66.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Under | 77c | 64.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6926…152dbacked Under | 78c | 63.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 53c | 58.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +21.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 77c | 58.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 696 | 51.1%356 W · 340 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Under | 42c | 57.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 411 | 60.1%247 W · 164 L | +22.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Over | 23c | 55.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 87 | 31%27 W · 60 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 44c | 53.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 740 | 56.9%421 W · 319 L | +46.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3284…45adbacked Under | 79c | 49.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 73cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 69c | 43.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 452 | 49.6%224 W · 228 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Under | 77c | 40.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 77c | 38.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 78c | 38.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 66c | 37.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 125 | 43.2%54 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e35…ee1abacked Under | 71c | 34.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 65c | 30.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…17bdbacked Under | 77c | 29.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 43c | 27.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 273 | 56.4%154 W · 119 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 189 | 61.9%117 W · 72 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked Under | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…ac63backed Under | 77c | 22.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked Under | 75c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 77c | 19.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 73 | 69.9%51 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…4bf8backed Under | 62c | 18.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 76c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 128 | 54.7%70 W · 58 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 78c | 17.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47cc…6aa7backed Under | 78c | 14.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 77c | 14.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Sunderland AFC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.