MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea9264db7cd6fe1c67b58709f364284275b6efc299102df22a63b90709940886
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 38c | 1,400$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.04 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Under | 62c | 1,089$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 288 | 51%147 W · 141 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 64c | 725$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.71 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 36c | 579.37$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.8 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 38c | 439.63$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.68 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…c5e1backed Over | 79c | 373.98$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked Under | 60c | 330$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked Under | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 182 | 52.2%95 W · 87 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed Under | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe044…019abacked Over | 75c | 320.83$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 22c | 231.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 38c | 220.58$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.76 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Over | 41c | 213$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.67 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -8.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked Under | 64c | 195.31$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked Under | 64c | 195$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…28d6backed Under | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 200 | 54%108 W · 92 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed Under | 62c | 157.63$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 189 | 55.6%105 W · 84 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 34c | 149.97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.48 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed Under | 66c | 131.77$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.97 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 47c | 122.29$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under | 62c | 109.68$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 163 | 53.4%87 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 38c | 99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 34c | 84.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 35c | 81.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked Under | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed Under | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 144 | 49.3%71 W · 73 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked Under | 63c | 79.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 226 | 57.1%129 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 18c | 70.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 61c | 66.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 37c | 54.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 38c | 49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 34c | 45.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 36c | 41.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 38c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed Under | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 68c | 38.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 38c | 36.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb092…48d5backed Under | 62c | 24.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…2287backed Over | 79c | 17.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles AngelsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-5.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.