MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6940afbed33cf54bae9e2f81048481790c8e128bac1b0d8d8ab57627fb714efb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Yes | 41c | 24,387$9,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,406.33 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked No | 59c | 8,261$4,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,874.23 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 59c | 5,273$3,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,106.04 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 61c | 3,402$2,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,058.46 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed No | 59c | 2,527$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.93 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 59c | 2,453$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.47 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 38c | 2,295$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,417.87 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 39c | 1,793$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.76 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b30…fb47backed No | 62c | 1,521$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed No | 60c | 1,505$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903 | 134 | 58.2%78 W · 56 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…68b2backed No | 62c | 1,400$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Yes | 38c | 917.2$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.66 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 61c | 823.82$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 288 | 51%147 W · 141 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e3…29ebbacked Yes | 38c | 795.87$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 59c | 677$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.43 | 205 | 55.6%114 W · 91 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked No | 59c | 600$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…89aabacked Yes | 39c | 500.25$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.15 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 42c | 499.99$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.26 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 39c | 354.8$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.83 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed No | 59c | 342$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.78 | 273 | 51.6%141 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…c3a0backed No | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 61c | 272.5$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.2 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 39c | 212.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.25 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…8927backed No | 59c | 209$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.31 | 189 | 51.9%98 W · 91 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 61c | 202.5$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 1,306 | 50.7%662 W · 644 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…944dbacked No | 61c | 196.72$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…e1c6backed No | 60c | 167$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 62c | 165$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…63bfbacked No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 39c | 130$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 754 | 53.2%401 W · 353 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed No | 62c | 130$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 424 | 55.4%235 W · 189 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 38c | 88.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 61c | 73.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 61c | 66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 144 | 49.3%71 W · 73 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 226 | 57.1%129 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 667 | 48.7%325 W · 342 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 62c | 34.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 379 | 51.7%196 W · 183 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 308 | 48.1%148 W · 160 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9412…730ebacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed No | 62c | 31.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…fe6bbacked No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…4d1abacked No | 61c | 21.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 60c | 20.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…bf4dbacked No | 61c | 18.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angelsthis page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles AngelsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-5.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.