Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaad9a7b0bdd375d571df1a9e8175bbad7f28d41f216b708289bf44bf0b9dd15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 31c | 1,571$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.7 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 38c | 1,011$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.89 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 598.72$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 573.92$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 439.72$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.99 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 53c | 316.03$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.57 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 68c | 305$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.35 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 304.76$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.28 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 37c | 269.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.74 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 262.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 33c | 259.94$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 25c | 194.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 49c | 144.51$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 49c | 130.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 62c | 129$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 48c | 116.15$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 60c | 109.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 63c | 95.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 92.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 87.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 84.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 48c | 76.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 64.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 80c | 62.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 58c | 58.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…b3d9backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd296…9963backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1aa…2d4ebacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 48.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 42.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes | 47c | 42.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 38.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 37.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 33c | 36.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 43c | 27.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…6261backed Yes | 52c | 25.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 80c | 24.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 61c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 22.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 69c | 22.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 19.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 52c | 19.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 66c | 18.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 63c | 16.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.