Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeadc5b64d3c1db4c95e3f54220f2f8e11ef1b514d5e5ce4b10e0874ddd931576
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 9c | 446.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 438.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 60c | 383.88$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.47 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 31c | 302.31$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.62 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed Yes | 68c | 296.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.12 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 43c | 254.74$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.62 | 260 | 61.5%160 W · 100 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 31c | 209.28$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 726 | 20.4%148 W · 578 L | -46.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec7…12f7backed No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 54c | 135.77$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 127 | 32.3%41 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 44c | 134$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.01 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 131.24$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 116.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 113.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7c…8785backed Yes | 47c | 107$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 48c | 102.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 375 | 50.7%190 W · 185 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 15c | 91.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 50c | 84.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 74.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 66.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 71c | 65.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 40c | 64.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 46c | 64.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 61.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 21c | 59.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 255 | 64.7%165 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 52c | 55.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…9085backed No | 55c | 50.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 58c | 49.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed No | 41c | 48.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7e…7278backed Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 237 | 50.2%119 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 43c | 37.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 40c | 36.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 55c | 34.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 45c | 33.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 53c | 32.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0458…ddc2backed Yes | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43ef…7d5abacked Yes | 79c | 25.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 53c | 24.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 46c | 23.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…e969backed Yes | 59c | 23.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 22.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 72c | 20.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 220 | 45.9%101 W · 119 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C or below on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.