MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaea778c8f1e773a0024b5700f04d5ccb65ec84aeb1335c3b30d74d3cb9e4bd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Tampa Bay Rays, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Colorado Rockies | 64c | 16,302$10,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,942.53 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 9,348$3,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,179.4 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Colorado Rockies | 61c | 5,187$3,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,044.04 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 4,197$1,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,916.43 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 1,024$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.6 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 614$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.88 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 3c | 400.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 386.42$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.68 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 266.85$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.39 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 210$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Colorado Rockies | 61c | 202.68$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.51 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 168.9$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Colorado Rockies | 71c | 136.79$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Colorado Rockies | 75c | 128$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 112.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Colorado Rockies | 60c | 96.93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Colorado Rockies | 68c | 94.68$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 292 | 51%149 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…b6ffbacked Colorado Rockies | 74c | 81.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +9.4wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked Colorado Rockies | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 226 | 53.1%120 W · 106 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 58.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 56.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 44.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 43.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 42.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 41.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfe…d954backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 33.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 29.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 71c | 20.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado RockiesTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 16.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 17.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.