MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f9640c4b5bda0d2dca1e44ce6e4c51cea075cdf936650499441f206cd644672
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 21,389$12,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,025 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 44c | 7,620$3,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,241.28 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Over | 45c | 3,474$1,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,910.97 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 44c | 2,116$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.78 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 51c | 2,018$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 44c | 1,600$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 45c | 1,200$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 45c | 1,170$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.35 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 1,147$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.14 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 55c | 1,110$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.45 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 45c | 923$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.51 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 44c | 697.99$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.87 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 659.24$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.73 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 54c | 650$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 57c | 551$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.07 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 21c | 357.4$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 45c | 339.93$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.96 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 54c | 336$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.64 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 46c | 300$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 38c | 279.37$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.33 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 55c | 275.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Over | 45c | 182.47$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.26 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 149.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.96 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 44c | 146.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.03 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 45c | 122.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.55 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 46c | 100.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 44c | 87.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 54c | 85.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Over | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 38c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 44c | 60.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 45c | 56.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Under | 54c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 247 | 49%121 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 57c | 49.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Over | 40c | 42.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 42.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 37.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 45c | 36.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 45c | 36.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5this page
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado RockiesTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 16.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 17.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.